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奇点看涨期权——为什么现在最蠢的事是短期主义

我们站在 J 曲线的陡峭段上，奇点内嵌的看涨期权被严重低估——现在不是交易的时候，是拉长持有期的时候。

2026-02-10 原文链接 ↗
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核心观点

  • 传统估值模型已失效 当实际经济增长可能是 20-sigma 事件时，DCF 和历史分布都没用了。二阶三阶变化驱动的上行空间，根本无法用常规现值计算捕捉。
  • AI 正在把时间"炼"成别的东西 Anthropic 100% 代码由 Claude 写，PM 拥有虚拟 SWE 团队，产品迭代提速不是两位数而是三位数百分比。这不是预测，是已经在发生的事。
  • 投资 vs 交易的 EV 差距将史无前例地大 奇点附近，波动是噪声，择时是自杀。持有 > 交易，这个结论在指数增长环境下被极端放大。
  • 财富铸造速度将超越加密时代 但与加密泡沫不同，这次真实经济价值的创造能更好地跟上资产价格的垂直上升。
  • ASI 2027 还是 2029 不重要 重要的是当它被宣布时，你想持有的资产价格早已翻了很多倍。敞口比时机重要。

跟我们的关联

### 👤ATou

  • 作为 AI 产品从业者，你比大多数人更能感知 J 曲线的陡峭程度——Neta 的迭代速度本身就是证据
  • 个人投资策略：拉长持有期，增加 AI/机器人/能源敞口，减少交易频率

### 🌍通用

  • 对所有还在用"历史均值回归"思维做投资决策的人的一记警钟

讨论引子

1. 你现在的投资组合里，有多少比例是在"赌奇点会来"？如果答案是 0，你是不是在赌它不会来？ 2. "投资 > 交易"这个结论在指数增长环境下是否绝对成立？有没有例外场景？ 3. 如果 ASI 真的在 2027-2029 到来，你现在的职业路径需要做什么调整？

指数地平线

我们正处在历史上最深刻的不对称时刻之一。此刻唯一的动作，就是拉长你的时间地平线，彻底抛弃短期主义。

对那些至少经历过一轮市场周期的人而言，你会本能地对远远快于历史节奏的价格上涨保持警惕。经历过互联网泡沫、2008 年全球金融危机（GFC），以及加密货币一次次繁荣与崩盘，会在你的大脑里建立起模式识别的警报。对泡沫过度焦虑是愚蠢的；试图择时同样愚蠢。短期波动与回调总会发生，但在我们如此接近奇点的当下，它们完全只是噪声。AI/机器人/能源/创新将迎来失控式增长。未来十年内，我们将拥有数十亿（甚至更多）的 AI 智能体工人、人形机器人、太空数据中心、多行星殖民、显著更好的医疗疗法，并从根本上改变各个领域技术突破的开发速度与产出效率。未来 20 年里，我们将压缩出比整个人类文明历史总和还要多的技术进步与经济增长。

我们已经站在 J 曲线的陡峭段上，只是当你把视角缩放到日复一日、周复一周时，很难看清。Anthropic 的产品代码如今 100% 都由 Claude 编写。产品经理（PM）拥有一支虚拟软件工程师（SWE）团队，几乎把时间“炼”成了别的东西。能够高效利用 AI 的公司，其产品迭代速度的提升不是个位数百分比、不是两位数百分比，而是三位数百分比。而这些工具的能力仍在以越来越快的速度提升。我们究竟会在 2027 年还是 2029 年正式达到 ASI（人工超级智能），其实并不重要；它一定会发生。等到它被正式宣布时，你想持有的那些资产价格早已翻了许多许多倍。

很有可能，接下来 3–10 年的实际经济增长，在任何历史分布下都会被记录为 20-sigma（20 个标准差）事件。过去被认为几乎不可能的增长，将由前所未有的二阶、三阶变化驱动。传统估值模型并不具备为这些变化定价的能力。上行失控的空间如此巨大，以至于很难用常规的现值计算把它捕捉出来。

财富增值的速度将极其惊人——就像当年加密货币在短时间内“铸造”出大量亿万富翁与过亿美元富豪那样，但会更加极端，数量级差异。若你没有相应的敞口，当价格上涨得如此之快时，买入会变得非常困难；但与以往的泡沫不同，真实经济价值的创造将更能够跟上资产价格垂直上升的步伐。在过去三年里，以“指数地平线”的认知行事的人已经获益良多。如果你还没有接受这种理解，现在也不算晚。

始终思考下行风险是必要的，但这也是世界迄今为止最大的上行风险。学会更长时间地承受风险。现在不是交易的时候。对绝大多数人而言，投资通常胜过交易；而交易与投资的期望值（EV）差距将比以往任何时候都更大。奇点所内嵌的看涨期权到底值多少钱？

链接: http://x.com/i/article/2020548108837412864

相关笔记

We are at one of the most profoundly asymmetric moments in history. The only move right now is to lengthen your time horizon and abandon short-termism entirely.

我们正处在历史上最深刻的不对称时刻之一。此刻唯一的动作，就是拉长你的时间地平线，彻底抛弃短期主义。

For those that have experienced atleast one market cycle, you build an instinct to be wary of price appreciation that greatly outpaces the historical rate. Seeing the Dot Com bubble, 2008 GFC, all the crypto boom and busts build pattern recognition warning alarms in your brain. Being overly concerned about bubbles is foolish. Trying to time the market is foolish. Short term fluctuations and corrections will always happen but are entirely noise since we're in such close reach to the singularity. We are going to have runaway growth in AI/Robotics/Energy/innovation. We will have billions (or more) of AI agent workers, humanoid robots, data centers in space, multiplanetary colonization, vastly better medical therapies and fundamentally change the development speed and throughput of the number of technological breakthroughs across all domains within the next decade. We will compress more technological progress and economic growth in the next 2 decades than in the entire history of civilization combined.

对那些至少经历过一轮市场周期的人而言，你会本能地对远远快于历史节奏的价格上涨保持警惕。经历过互联网泡沫、2008 年全球金融危机（GFC），以及加密货币一次次繁荣与崩盘，会在你的大脑里建立起模式识别的警报。对泡沫过度焦虑是愚蠢的；试图择时同样愚蠢。短期波动与回调总会发生，但在我们如此接近奇点的当下，它们完全只是噪声。AI/机器人/能源/创新将迎来失控式增长。未来十年内，我们将拥有数十亿（甚至更多）的 AI 智能体工人、人形机器人、太空数据中心、多行星殖民、显著更好的医疗疗法，并从根本上改变各个领域技术突破的开发速度与产出效率。未来 20 年里，我们将压缩出比整个人类文明历史总和还要多的技术进步与经济增长。

We are already on the steep part of the J curve but it's hard to see when we zoom in to the day to day or week to week. 100% of Anthropic product code is now written by Claude. PMs have a team of virtual SWEs that almost transmute time. Companies that efficiently utilize AI have been increasing their product iteration speed not by single digit %, not double digit %, but triple digit %. And the capabilities of these tools are still improving at an ever faster rate. Whether we officially hit ASI in 2027 or 2029 doesn't really matter. It WILL happen. By the time it's officially declared, asset prices of the things you want to own will be many many times higher.

我们已经站在 J 曲线的陡峭段上，只是当你把视角缩放到日复一日、周复一周时，很难看清。Anthropic 的产品代码如今 100% 都由 Claude 编写。产品经理（PM）拥有一支虚拟软件工程师（SWE）团队，几乎把时间“炼”成了别的东西。能够高效利用 AI 的公司，其产品迭代速度的提升不是个位数百分比、不是两位数百分比，而是三位数百分比。而这些工具的能力仍在以越来越快的速度提升。我们究竟会在 2027 年还是 2029 年正式达到 ASI（人工超级智能），其实并不重要；它一定会发生。等到它被正式宣布时，你想持有的那些资产价格早已翻了许多许多倍。

Quite feasibly, the next 3-10 years of real economic growth could register as 20-sigma events under any historical distribution. Growth that was previously considered near impossible, driven by second- and third-order changes that have no precedent. Traditional valuation models are unequipped to price these changes. The potential for runaway upside is so vast that it's very difficult to capture them with conventional present value calculations.

很有可能，接下来 3–10 年的实际经济增长，在任何历史分布下都会被记录为 20-sigma（20 个标准差）事件。过去被认为几乎不可能的增长，将由前所未有的二阶、三阶变化驱动。传统估值模型并不具备为这些变化定价的能力。上行失控的空间如此巨大，以至于很难用常规的现值计算把它捕捉出来。

The velocity of wealth appreciation will be extremely startling just like it was when crypto first minted many billionaires and centimillionaires in a short period of time, but orders of magnitude more extreme. If not exposed, it will be very hard to buy into prices that are appreciating so quickly, but unlike previous bubbles, real economic value creation will be able to keep much better pace with vertical asset appreciation. Those that have operated with the understanding of the exponential horizon over the last 3 years have benefited greatly. If you have not adopted this understanding, it's not too late.

财富增值的速度将极其惊人——就像当年加密货币在短时间内“铸造”出大量亿万富翁与过亿美元富豪那样，但会更加极端，数量级差异。若你没有相应的敞口，当价格上涨得如此之快时，买入会变得非常困难；但与以往的泡沫不同，真实经济价值的创造将更能够跟上资产价格垂直上升的步伐。在过去三年里，以“指数地平线”的认知行事的人已经获益良多。如果你还没有接受这种理解，现在也不算晚。

It's essential to always think about downside risk, but this is the largest upside risk the world has ever seen. Learn how to stomach risks for longer. This is not the time to trade. Investing generally outperforms trading for the vast majority of the population but the gap between the EV of trading vs investing will grow larger than ever. How much is the embedded call option of the singularity worth?

始终思考下行风险是必要的，但这也是世界迄今为止最大的上行风险。学会更长时间地承受风险。现在不是交易的时候。对绝大多数人而言，投资通常胜过交易；而交易与投资的期望值（EV）差距将比以往任何时候都更大。奇点所内嵌的看涨期权到底值多少钱？

Link: http://x.com/i/article/2020548108837412864

链接: http://x.com/i/article/2020548108837412864

相关笔记

The Exponential Horizon

  • Source: https://x.com/rewkang/status/2020560687722852391?s=46
  • Mirror: https://x.com/rewkang/status/2020560687722852391?s=46
  • Published: 2026-02-08T18:09:42+00:00
  • Saved: 2026-02-11

Content

We are at one of the most profoundly asymmetric moments in history. The only move right now is to lengthen your time horizon and abandon short-termism entirely.

For those that have experienced atleast one market cycle, you build an instinct to be wary of price appreciation that greatly outpaces the historical rate. Seeing the Dot Com bubble, 2008 GFC, all the crypto boom and busts build pattern recognition warning alarms in your brain. Being overly concerned about bubbles is foolish. Trying to time the market is foolish. Short term fluctuations and corrections will always happen but are entirely noise since we're in such close reach to the singularity. We are going to have runaway growth in AI/Robotics/Energy/innovation. We will have billions (or more) of AI agent workers, humanoid robots, data centers in space, multiplanetary colonization, vastly better medical therapies and fundamentally change the development speed and throughput of the number of technological breakthroughs across all domains within the next decade. We will compress more technological progress and economic growth in the next 2 decades than in the entire history of civilization combined.

We are already on the steep part of the J curve but it's hard to see when we zoom in to the day to day or week to week. 100% of Anthropic product code is now written by Claude. PMs have a team of virtual SWEs that almost transmute time. Companies that efficiently utilize AI have been increasing their product iteration speed not by single digit %, not double digit %, but triple digit %. And the capabilities of these tools are still improving at an ever faster rate. Whether we officially hit ASI in 2027 or 2029 doesn't really matter. It WILL happen. By the time it's officially declared, asset prices of the things you want to own will be many many times higher.

Quite feasibly, the next 3-10 years of real economic growth could register as 20-sigma events under any historical distribution. Growth that was previously considered near impossible, driven by second- and third-order changes that have no precedent. Traditional valuation models are unequipped to price these changes. The potential for runaway upside is so vast that it's very difficult to capture them with conventional present value calculations.

The velocity of wealth appreciation will be extremely startling just like it was when crypto first minted many billionaires and centimillionaires in a short period of time, but orders of magnitude more extreme. If not exposed, it will be very hard to buy into prices that are appreciating so quickly, but unlike previous bubbles, real economic value creation will be able to keep much better pace with vertical asset appreciation. Those that have operated with the understanding of the exponential horizon over the last 3 years have benefited greatly. If you have not adopted this understanding, it's not too late.

It's essential to always think about downside risk, but this is the largest upside risk the world has ever seen. Learn how to stomach risks for longer. This is not the time to trade. Investing generally outperforms trading for the vast majority of the population but the gap between the EV of trading vs investing will grow larger than ever. How much is the embedded call option of the singularity worth?

Link: http://x.com/i/article/2020548108837412864

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