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如果「10 点砸盘」是真的——BTC 的价格发现可能早就被做市商劫持了

这篇把三件事强行串成一条阴谋论式的叙事：Terra 崩盘相关内幕交易指控 + 2024-2025 每天美东 10 点的算法抛压 + 13F 看得见的 IBIT 多头与看不见的衍生品空头——矛头直指 Jane Street 用 ETF/AP 权限做“合成供给”压 BTC。

2026-02-26 原文链接 ↗
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核心观点

  • “故事很顺”，但它首先是一份指控清单，不是定罪书。 文中核心证据来自：Terraform 破产管理人提起的联邦诉讼（指控 Jane Street 通过私聊群获取重大非公开信息并抢跑）、Glassnode 联创对“10 点闪崩”形态的观察、以及对 13F 披露规则的结构性批评。这里面有真信息，但同样充满“把相关性当因果”的风险。
  • 10 点模式如果存在，压的不是现货，是杠杆结构。 文章描述的机制本质是：在开盘流动性薄的窗口砸穿价格 → 触发杠杆多头连锁清算 → 在更低处回补/再进场。就算不是 Jane Street，任何有足够资本与执行力的玩家都可能做同类操作。重点不是“谁”，而是“这种市场结构是否允许”。
  • 13F 的盲区是真问题：你看到的“多头”可能只是做市库存。 13F 只要求披露股票多头，不披露期权/期货/互换。授权参与方（AP）和大型做市商持有 ETF 份额，天然会配套一套对冲衍生品。把 IBIT 持仓简单解读为看多，本来就是外行常犯的错。
  • 把“ETF 管道权限”解读为“能随意压价”，中间缺了关键一环：可验证的数据。 文章的说服力来自“你想象得到它可以这样做”，而不是“我们已经用可复现的链上/盘口数据证明它在这样做”。如果要把它从阴谋论拉回研究，下一步应该是把 10 点时段的成交、资金费率、清算瀑布、ETF 申赎流量做交叉对齐。
  • 真正值得记住的结论不是 150k，而是：BTC 叙事正在从“稀缺性”转向“价格发现的制度设计”。 2100 万上限是协议层的稀缺；但价格是市场制度层的产物。机构化（ETF、做市商、衍生品）让“稀缺 ≠ 一定涨”变得更复杂。

跟我们的关联

💰投资 — 这篇提醒两件事： 1) 不要用 13F 当作“机构看多”的情绪指标； 2) 如果你在做 BTC 相关交易，核心风险不是“方向”，而是“结构”（流动性窗口、杠杆清算、做市商行为）。

🌍通用 — 一个典型案例：信息不充分时，人会用叙事把碎片拼成“可解释的世界”。阅读时要能同时抓住“它可能揭示了真实结构问题”与“它可能只是更高级的故事”。

讨论引子

💭 如果“每天 10 点砸盘”不是某一家机构的阴谋，而是市场结构的必然（流动性窗口 + 杠杆），那我们应该如何设计一个对散户更公平的价格发现机制？

💭 对 BTC 这种高度衍生品化资产，未来真正的护城河到底是什么：协议稀缺性、监管框架，还是做市商的基础设施？

💭 我们该把多少注意力放在“谁在操纵”，又该把多少放在“这种操纵在制度上是否可行”？

10点砸盘：Jane Street 如何压制比特币价格

比特币现在至少该在 150,000 美元以上——人人都知道这一点。

昨天，曼哈顿提交的一起联邦诉讼把它为何达不到解释得清清楚楚。

让我们第一次把三条线索串起来：一宗建立在名为“Bryce's Secret”的私人聊天群之上的联邦内幕交易案件；一种在每天上午 10 点系统性抛售、直至 2025 年末仍在压制比特币价格的模式；以及一份未披露的衍生品账本——它可能让史上最大的一笔比特币 ETF 持仓，反而成为压制比特币价格的工具。

三条线索最终都指向同一个名字：Jane Street Capital。

实习生

故事从一位名叫 Bryce Pratt 的实习生说起。

Pratt 曾在 Terraform Labs 实习——这家总部位于新加坡的公司推出了算法稳定币 TerraUSD 及其代币 Luna。他离开 Terraform，并在 2021 年 9 月以全职身份加入 Jane Street。

Jane Street 也是 SBF 在创立 FTX 和 Alameda Research 之前学习交易的地方；他后来不少同事要么出身于这家公司，要么与其人脉网络有交集。

根据 Terraform 破产管理人 Todd Snyder 提起的诉讼，Pratt 通过一个聊天群让前东家与新东家建立起了“桥梁”。法院文件将该群描述为“Bryce's Secret”。

诉状称，Jane Street 利用这一渠道获取了 Terraform 内部流动性操作的重大非公开信息。

关键时刻出现在 2022 年 5 月 7 日。Terraform 从 Curve3pool 提走了 1.5 亿美元的 TerraUSD。Curve3pool 是一个去中心化交易平台，也是该稳定币的主要流动性枢纽。在这次提走后的 10 分钟内——在 Terraform 向公众告知或发布任何公告之前——一个与 Jane Street 有关联的钱包又从同一池子提走了 8500 万美元的 TerraUSD。

叠加的抛压助推了 UST 脱离美元锚定。数日之内，Luna 的算法铸造-销毁机制失控，代币供应发生恶性通胀，市值蒸发 400 亿美元。散户投资者遭受灾难性损失。

诉讼称，Jane Street 在恰到好处的时点平掉仓位，从而避免了超过 2 亿美元的潜在风险敞口——就在“Terraform 生态系统崩溃前的短短数小时”。

诉状形容这些交易“如果没有 [Jane Street] 独有渠道获得的内幕信息，将不可能发生”。

Jane Street 称该诉讼“孤注一掷”“毫无根据”，并辩称 Terra 与 Luna 持有人遭受的损失源于 Terraform 自身的欺诈。

Do Kwon 目前正在服 15 年刑期。Snyder 还就同一场崩盘中的涉嫌操纵行为，另行对 Jump Trading 提起了一宗 40 亿美元的诉讼。这表明，针对 Terra 死亡螺旋期间机构行为的调查可能是系统性的，而不只是对某一家公司的孤立指控。

时钟

从 2024 年末开始，并在 2025 年加速，比特币价格出现了一种交易员注意到了却无法解释的现象。

每个交易日美东时间上午 10 点——恰逢美国股市开盘——比特币都会出现突然且剧烈的抛售。下跌精准、算法化，并且与更广泛的市场环境极不相称。它们会清算杠杆多头仓位，引发连锁爆仓，然后在数小时内又反转回升。

区块链分析公司 Glassnode 的联合创始人 Jan Happel 与 Yann Allemann，通过他们共同的账号 Negentropic 记录了这些模式。他们在数月交易数据中追踪到这些下跌的算法式精确性，这一规律并不隐蔽。12 月的一些图表显示，比特币在 10 点开盘后的几分钟内从 89,700 美元跌至 87,700 美元，抹去 1.71 亿美元的多头仓位后又回升。

这种情况每天都在发生，一天接一天。

Jane Street 作为多只比特币 ETF 的指定做市商与授权参与方（authorized participant），既有仓位也有基础设施，能够在可预测的流动性窗口内大规模执行协同抛售。在开盘时向稀薄的订单簿砸盘会压低价格，引发杠杆交易者的连锁清算，并在更低位置制造买入机会。随后，这家公司就可以在自己“制造”的下跌底部重新进场。

随后发生了一件耐人寻味的事。

据 Glassnode 联合创始人称，在去年年初 Terraform Labs 的诉讼文件公开后，这种每日“闪崩”就停止了。其后的交易时段里，比特币价格显著趋于稳定。这样的行为变化，符合一家突然需要面对证据开示与宣誓证词（depositions）的机构所可能做出的反应。

这种“上午 10 点”模式在 2025 年末又回来了。到 12 月，它已全力回归。

简单说，Jane Street 头顶有律师盯着的那段时间，10 点砸盘就戛然而止；风头一过，它又重新开始。

显然，让它暂停的那种压力已不再足够。

机器

在 2025 年第四季度的 13F 报告中，Jane Street 披露其持有 20,315,780 股 IBIT，价值约 7.9 亿美元。仅该季度，公司就新增 7,105,206 股，增加约 2.76 亿美元。去年某个时点，它的 IBIT 总持仓一度接近 25 亿美元。

与此同时，公司将其 MicroStrategy 股票持仓提高了 473%，累计持有 951,187 股，价值约 1.21 亿美元；而在同一时期，BlackRock 与 Vanguard 却在 MSTR 上减持了数十亿美元。

如果你不了解 Jane Street 究竟是什么，这看起来就像是看多式的囤货。

Jane Street 是仅有的四家被授权为 IBIT 进行实物（in-kind）申购与赎回的机构之一；另外三家是 Virtu Americas、JP Morgan Securities 和 Marex。Jane Street 同时也是 Fidelity 与 WisdomTree 比特币 ETF 的授权参与方。这个角色使其能够直接触达将 ETF 份额价格与真实比特币连接起来的那套机制。Jane Street 可以在 ETF 结构内外调入调出真实比特币，套利基金与现货市场之间的价差，并维持任何普通市场参与者都难以累积的巨大库存头寸。

换句话说，Jane Street 直接掌握着把比特币 ETF 接到真实比特币上的那根“管道”，而几乎没有其他人有这样的权限。

加密媒体把这份 13F 解读为机构信心的象征。但真正懂市场结构的人立刻表示：并非如此。

隐形账本

前对冲基金经理 Michael Green 称，对 Jane Street 的 13F 作“看多”解读是“令人痛苦的”。他指出，Jane Street 的 IBIT 持仓“几乎完全被未披露的期权与期货头寸对冲”，并且“他们当然不是在‘积累’比特币头寸。这就是做市的运作方式。”

前自营交易员 Ryan Scott 更直白：“把这当作利多来发的人，简直是在犯死罪。这条新闻的标题应该是：‘你绝对猜不到还有谁同时持有无需披露的对冲衍生品仓位。’”

Nik Bhatia 则把问题归结为激励：“Jane Street 持有 IBIT，是为了能写期权、做套利，以及做一家量化交易公司为快速赚钱会做的一切。”

这对每一个持有比特币或 IBIT 的人意味着什么？

13F 报告披露的是股票多头持仓，并不要求披露期权、期货或互换。Jane Street 报告自己持有 7.9 亿美元的 IBIT 份额时，这份文件并不会告诉你这些份额是否被看跌期权对冲、是否被做空期货抵消，或是否被套上一个使公司净比特币敞口为零甚至为负的 collar（领式策略）。

公众看到的只是“加仓”。但真实头寸可能是一笔巨大的空头——之所以看起来像多头，是因为在现行披露规则下，交易的对冲半边是看不见的。

13F 就像是资产负债表某一侧的一张照片。公司之外的任何人都看不到另一侧。

这也让每个比特币持有者都无法回避一个问题：这家公司到底对比特币的净敞口是多少？如果它持有 7.9 亿美元的 IBIT 份额，同时用 7.9 亿美元的看跌期权或做空期货对冲，那么净敞口就是零。若衍生品账本规模超过其股票持仓，那么净敞口就是负的——也就是说，比特币价格下跌时 Jane Street 反而获利。

无论哪种情形，这家公司都有充足动力利用其作为授权参与方的特权地位去压低现货价格、触发爆仓，并收割价差。

Jane Street 对比特币的真实净敞口到底是多少？现行披露框架并不要求他们回答。

先例

Jane Street 在比特币市场的行为尚未被监管机构检验过。但它在其他市场的行为已经被检验过。

2025 年，印度证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Board of India，SEBI）发布了一份长达 105 页的执法令，指控 Jane Street 相关实体操纵 BANKNIFTY 指数期权。

SEBI 认定，该公司在现货与衍生品市场之间进行协同交易，在两年内获得 ₹36,502 crore（约 43 亿美元）的利润，并在单个交易日抽走了 ₹735 crore。

监管机构称，这种行为在任何拥有正常运作金融监管机构的国家都明显属于违法，并对该公司的交易发布了临时限制。Jane Street 在印度指数衍生品上的策略遵循一种熟悉的结构：利用其在速度与规模上的特权去撬动一个市场，然后在其上方叠加的衍生品层收割利润。

问题在于，同样的逻辑是否也适用于比特币。

2100 万

2100 万枚的硬性上限由独立的比特币节点网络所执行。

这一上限隐含的前提是：价格发现是诚实的；市场能反映真实的供需；机构持有比特币或与比特币相关的工具时，其头寸代表对资产的真实敞口，而不是被用作衍生品策略的原料——而这种策略对其他所有参与者都不可见。

换言之，只有当建立在协议之上的市场是诚实的，2100 万上限才真正“起作用”。

Jane Street 是仅有四家握着比特币 ETF 基础设施“钥匙”的机构之一。它正面临一宗联邦诉讼，指称其通过内幕驱动的抢跑交易，协助造成 400 亿美元价值的毁灭。它还被指控运行算法化抛售程序，在数月间压制比特币价格。而与此同时，它披露的比特币 ETF 持仓规模是最大的，却又维持着一套衍生品账本，足以让其真实敞口与申报文件暗示的方向完全相反。

因此，当 Jane Street 可以在自身 ETF 库存之上叠加未披露的衍生品，从而“制造”出无限的合成供给时，2100 万上限在价格层面就变得无关紧要。

比特币在协议层面的稀缺性是真实的，但其上方的价格发现机制已被一家把特权接入当作利润引擎的机构所破坏，而现行披露框架又让它几乎可以在无人监督的情况下完成这一切。

每一位比特币持有者都理应知道：Jane Street 的真实净头寸究竟是什么？

在我们弄清楚之前，比特币的价格就由 Jane Street 来决定。

Negentropic（Glassnode 联合创始人 Jan Happel 与 Yann Allemann）、Michael Green、Ryan Scott 和 Nik Bhatia 的研究为本文部分分析提供了参考。Terraform Labs 的诉讼由管理人 Todd Snyder 于 2026 年 2 月 24 日在曼哈顿联邦法院提起。另有一宗针对 Jump Trading 的 40 亿美元诉讼已被提起。Jane Street 否认所有指控，并称 Terraform 的诉讼“毫无根据”。

链接： http://x.com/i/article/2026735453026631680

相关笔记

Bitcoin should be at least $150,000 right now and everyone knows it.

比特币现在至少该在 150,000 美元以上——人人都知道这一点。

Yesterday, a federal lawsuit was filed in Manhattan that explains exactly why it isn't.

昨天，曼哈顿提交的一起联邦诉讼把它为何达不到解释得清清楚楚。

Let's connect three threads for the first time: a federal insider trading case built on a private chat group called "Bryce's Secret," a pattern of systematic 10am sell programs that suppressed Bitcoin's price through late 2025, and an undisclosed derivative book that may make the largest Bitcoin ETF position in history a tool for suppressing the price of Bitcoin.

让我们第一次把三条线索串起来：一宗建立在名为“Bryce's Secret”的私人聊天群之上的联邦内幕交易案件；一种在每天上午 10 点系统性抛售、直至 2025 年末仍在压制比特币价格的模式；以及一份未披露的衍生品账本——它可能让史上最大的一笔比特币 ETF 持仓，反而成为压制比特币价格的工具。

All three threads lead back to one name: Jane Street Capital.

三条线索最终都指向同一个名字：Jane Street Capital。

The Intern

实习生

It starts with an intern named Bryce Pratt.

故事从一位名叫 Bryce Pratt 的实习生说起。

Pratt worked as an intern at Terraform Labs, the Singapore-based company behind the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its token Luna. He left Terraform and joined Jane Street as a full-time employee in September 2021.

Pratt 曾在 Terraform Labs 实习——这家总部位于新加坡的公司推出了算法稳定币 TerraUSD 及其代币 Luna。他离开 Terraform，并在 2021 年 9 月以全职身份加入 Jane Street。

Jane Street is also where SBF learned to trade before founding FTX and Alameda Research, and many of his future colleagues came from the firm or intersected with its networks.

Jane Street 也是 SBF 在创立 FTX 和 Alameda Research 之前学习交易的地方；他后来不少同事要么出身于这家公司，要么与其人脉网络有交集。

According to the lawsuit filed by Terraform's bankruptcy administrator Todd Snyder, Pratt became the bridge between his former employer and his new one through a chat group that court filings describe as "Bryce's Secret."

根据 Terraform 破产管理人 Todd Snyder 提起的诉讼，Pratt 通过一个聊天群让前东家与新东家建立起了“桥梁”。法院文件将该群描述为“Bryce's Secret”。

The lawsuit alleges that Jane Street used this channel to obtain material nonpublic information about Terraform's internal liquidity moves.

诉状称，Jane Street 利用这一渠道获取了 Terraform 内部流动性操作的重大非公开信息。

The critical moment came on May 7, 2022. Terraform withdrew $150 million in TerraUSD from Curve3pool, a decentralized trading platform that served as the primary liquidity hub for the stablecoin. Within ten minutes of that withdrawal, before Terraform informed the public or made any announcement, a wallet linked to Jane Street pulled $85 million in TerraUSD from the same pool.

关键时刻出现在 2022 年 5 月 7 日。Terraform 从 Curve3pool 提走了 1.5 亿美元的 TerraUSD。Curve3pool 是一个去中心化交易平台，也是该稳定币的主要流动性枢纽。在这次提走后的 10 分钟内——在 Terraform 向公众告知或发布任何公告之前——一个与 Jane Street 有关联的钱包又从同一池子提走了 8500 万美元的 TerraUSD。

The combined selling pressure helped trigger UST's break from its dollar peg. Within days, Luna's algorithmic mint-and-burn mechanism spiraled out of control, hyperinflating the token supply and destroying $40 billion in market value. Retail investors suffered catastrophic losses.

叠加的抛压助推了 UST 脱离美元锚定。数日之内，Luna 的算法铸造-销毁机制失控，代币供应发生恶性通胀，市值蒸发 400 亿美元。散户投资者遭受灾难性损失。

Jane Street, according to the lawsuit, avoided more than $200 million in potential exposure by unwinding its position at precisely the right moment, "mere hours before the Terraform ecosystem collapsed."

诉讼称，Jane Street 在恰到好处的时点平掉仓位，从而避免了超过 2 亿美元的潜在风险敞口——就在“Terraform 生态系统崩溃前的短短数小时”。

The lawsuit describes trades that "would have been impossible without inside information to which [Jane Street] had unique access."

诉状形容这些交易“如果没有 [Jane Street] 独有渠道获得的内幕信息，将不可能发生”。

Jane Street calls the suit "desperate" and "baseless," arguing that the losses suffered by Terra and Luna holders were caused by Terraform's own fraud.

Jane Street 称该诉讼“孤注一掷”“毫无根据”，并辩称 Terra 与 Luna 持有人遭受的损失源于 Terraform 自身的欺诈。

Do Kwon is now serving a 15-year prison sentence. Snyder has also filed a separate $4 billion lawsuit against Jump Trading over alleged manipulation of the same collapse, which suggests a systematic investigation into institutional conduct during the Terra death spiral rather than just an isolated claim against a single firm.

Do Kwon 目前正在服 15 年刑期。Snyder 还就同一场崩盘中的涉嫌操纵行为，另行对 Jump Trading 提起了一宗 40 亿美元的诉讼。这表明，针对 Terra 死亡螺旋期间机构行为的调查可能是系统性的，而不只是对某一家公司的孤立指控。

The Clock

时钟

Beginning in late 2024 and accelerating through 2025, Bitcoin's price began doing something that traders noticed but couldn't explain.

从 2024 年末开始，并在 2025 年加速，比特币价格出现了一种交易员注意到了却无法解释的现象。

Every trading day at 10am Eastern, coinciding with the U.S. stock market open, Bitcoin experienced sudden and sharp sell-offs. The drops were precise, algorithmic, and wildly disproportionate to broader market conditions. They wiped out leveraged long positions, triggered cascading liquidations, and then reversed within hours.

每个交易日美东时间上午 10 点——恰逢美国股市开盘——比特币都会出现突然且剧烈的抛售。下跌精准、算法化，并且与更广泛的市场环境极不相称。它们会清算杠杆多头仓位，引发连锁爆仓，然后在数小时内又反转回升。

Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, the co-founders of blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, documented these patterns through their shared account Negentropic. They tracked the algorithmic precision of the drops across months of trading data, and the pattern was not subtle. Charts from December show Bitcoin falling from $89,700 to $87,700 within minutes of the 10am open, erasing $171 million in long positions before recovering.

区块链分析公司 Glassnode 的联合创始人 Jan Happel 与 Yann Allemann，通过他们共同的账号 Negentropic 记录了这些模式。他们在数月交易数据中追踪到这些下跌的算法式精确性，这一规律并不隐蔽。12 月的一些图表显示，比特币在 10 点开盘后的几分钟内从 89,700 美元跌至 87,700 美元，抹去 1.71 亿美元的多头仓位后又回升。

This happened every day, day after day.

这种情况每天都在发生，一天接一天。

Jane Street, as a designated market maker and authorized participant for multiple Bitcoin ETFs, had both the inventory and the infrastructure to execute coordinated selling at scale during predictable liquidity windows. Selling into thin order books at the open would depress the price, trigger liquidation cascades among leveraged traders, and create buying opportunities at lower levels. The firm could then re-enter at the bottom of a move it had manufactured.

Jane Street 作为多只比特币 ETF 的指定做市商与授权参与方（authorized participant），既有仓位也有基础设施，能够在可预测的流动性窗口内大规模执行协同抛售。在开盘时向稀薄的订单簿砸盘会压低价格，引发杠杆交易者的连锁清算，并在更低位置制造买入机会。随后，这家公司就可以在自己“制造”的下跌底部重新进场。

Then something revealing happened.

随后发生了一件耐人寻味的事。

According to Glassnode's co-founders, the daily flash crashes ceased after the Terraform Labs lawsuit filings became public early last year. Bitcoin's price stabilized significantly in subsequent trading sessions. The behavioral change is consistent with a firm that suddenly had legal discovery and depositions to consider.

据 Glassnode 联合创始人称，在去年年初 Terraform Labs 的诉讼文件公开后，这种每日“闪崩”就停止了。其后的交易时段里，比特币价格显著趋于稳定。这样的行为变化，符合一家突然需要面对证据开示与宣誓证词（depositions）的机构所可能做出的反应。

The 10am pattern resumed in late 2025. By December, it was back with full force.

这种“上午 10 点”模式在 2025 年末又回来了。到 12 月，它已全力回归。

Basically, the 10am dumps stopped the moment Jane Street had lawyers looking over its shoulder, and started again when the heat died down.

简单说，Jane Street 头顶有律师盯着的那段时间，10 点砸盘就戛然而止；风头一过，它又重新开始。

Whatever pressure had caused the pause was apparently no longer sufficient.

显然，让它暂停的那种压力已不再足够。

The Machine

机器

In its Q4 2025 13F filing, Jane Street disclosed holding 20,315,780 shares of IBIT worth approximately $790 million. The firm added 7,105,206 shares during the quarter alone, a $276 million increase. At one point last year, its total IBIT position was valued at nearly $2.5 billion.

在 2025 年第四季度的 13F 报告中，Jane Street 披露其持有 20,315,780 股 IBIT，价值约 7.9 亿美元。仅该季度，公司就新增 7,105,206 股，增加约 2.76 亿美元。去年某个时点，它的 IBIT 总持仓一度接近 25 亿美元。

Simultaneously, the firm boosted its holdings of MicroStrategy stock by 473%, accumulating 951,187 shares worth roughly $121 million, even as BlackRock and Vanguard divested billions in MSTR during the same period.

与此同时，公司将其 MicroStrategy 股票持仓提高了 473%，累计持有 951,187 股，价值约 1.21 亿美元；而在同一时期，BlackRock 与 Vanguard 却在 MSTR 上减持了数十亿美元。

This looks like bullish accumulation if you don't understand what Jane Street actually is.

如果你不了解 Jane Street 究竟是什么，这看起来就像是看多式的囤货。

Jane Street is one of only four firms authorized to conduct in-kind creations and redemptions for IBIT. The others are Virtu Americas, JP Morgan Securities, and Marex. Jane Street is also an authorized participant for Fidelity's and WisdomTree's Bitcoin ETFs. This role gives the firm direct access to the mechanism that connects ETF share prices to actual Bitcoin. Jane Street can move real Bitcoin into and out of the ETF structure, arbitrage price differences between the fund and the spot market, and maintain inventory positions that dwarf what any normal market participant could accumulate.

Jane Street 是仅有的四家被授权为 IBIT 进行实物（in-kind）申购与赎回的机构之一；另外三家是 Virtu Americas、JP Morgan Securities 和 Marex。Jane Street 同时也是 Fidelity 与 WisdomTree 比特币 ETF 的授权参与方。这个角色使其能够直接触达将 ETF 份额价格与真实比特币连接起来的那套机制。Jane Street 可以在 ETF 结构内外调入调出真实比特币，套利基金与现货市场之间的价差，并维持任何普通市场参与者都难以累积的巨大库存头寸。

Basically, Jane Street has direct access to the pipe that connects the Bitcoin ETF to actual Bitcoin, and almost nobody else does.

换句话说，Jane Street 直接掌握着把比特币 ETF 接到真实比特币上的那根“管道”，而几乎没有其他人有这样的权限。

The crypto press reported the 13F as a sign of institutional conviction. The people who actually understand market structure immediately said otherwise.

加密媒体把这份 13F 解读为机构信心的象征。但真正懂市场结构的人立刻表示：并非如此。

The Invisible Book

隐形账本

Former hedge fund manager Michael Green called the bullish interpretation of Jane Street's 13F "painful." He pointed out that Jane Street's IBIT position "is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options and futures positions" and that "they are certainly not 'accumulating' a position in Bitcoin. That's how market making works."

前对冲基金经理 Michael Green 称，对 Jane Street 的 13F 作“看多”解读是“令人痛苦的”。他指出，Jane Street 的 IBIT 持仓“几乎完全被未披露的期权与期货头寸对冲”，并且“他们当然不是在‘积累’比特币头寸。这就是做市的运作方式。”

Former prop trader Ryan Scott was blunter: "Anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be 'You'll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported.'"

前自营交易员 Ryan Scott 更直白：“把这当作利多来发的人，简直是在犯死罪。这条新闻的标题应该是：‘你绝对猜不到还有谁同时持有无需披露的对冲衍生品仓位。’”

Nik Bhatia reduced it to incentives: "Jane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money."

Nik Bhatia 则把问题归结为激励：“Jane Street 持有 IBIT，是为了能写期权、做套利，以及做一家量化交易公司为快速赚钱会做的一切。”

Here is what this means for every person who holds Bitcoin or IBIT.

这对每一个持有比特币或 IBIT 的人意味着什么？

A 13F filing discloses long equity positions. It doesn't require disclosure of options, futures, or swaps. When Jane Street reports holding $790 million in IBIT shares, the filing tells you nothing about whether those shares are hedged by puts, offset by short futures, or wrapped in a collar that makes the firm's net Bitcoin exposure zero or even negative.

13F 报告披露的是股票多头持仓，并不要求披露期权、期货或互换。Jane Street 报告自己持有 7.9 亿美元的 IBIT 份额时，这份文件并不会告诉你这些份额是否被看跌期权对冲、是否被做空期货抵消，或是否被套上一个使公司净比特币敞口为零甚至为负的 collar（领式策略）。

The public just sees accumulation. The actual position could be a massive short that looks like a long because the offsetting half of the trade is invisible under current disclosure rules.

公众看到的只是“加仓”。但真实头寸可能是一笔巨大的空头——之所以看起来像多头，是因为在现行披露规则下，交易的对冲半边是看不见的。

The 13F is a photograph of one side of the balance sheet. Nobody outside the firm can see the other side.

13F 就像是资产负债表某一侧的一张照片。公司之外的任何人都看不到另一侧。

This is where the question every Bitcoin holder should be asking becomes unavoidable. If the firm holds $790 million in IBIT shares and offsets that position with $790 million in put options or short futures, the net exposure is zero. If the derivative book exceeds the equity position, the net exposure is negative, meaning Jane Street profits when Bitcoin's price falls.

这也让每个比特币持有者都无法回避一个问题：这家公司到底对比特币的净敞口是多少？如果它持有 7.9 亿美元的 IBIT 份额，同时用 7.9 亿美元的看跌期权或做空期货对冲，那么净敞口就是零。若衍生品账本规模超过其股票持仓，那么净敞口就是负的——也就是说，比特币价格下跌时 Jane Street 反而获利。

In either scenario, the firm has every incentive to use its privileged position as authorized participant to suppress the spot price, trigger liquidations, and harvest the spread.

无论哪种情形，这家公司都有充足动力利用其作为授权参与方的特权地位去压低现货价格、触发爆仓，并收割价差。

What is Jane Street's actual net exposure to Bitcoin? The current disclosure framework does not require them to answer.

Jane Street 对比特币的真实净敞口到底是多少？现行披露框架并不要求他们回答。

The Precedent

先例

Jane Street's conduct in Bitcoin markets has not been tested by regulators. Its conduct in other markets has.

Jane Street 在比特币市场的行为尚未被监管机构检验过。但它在其他市场的行为已经被检验过。

In 2025, the Securities and Exchange Board of India published a 105-page enforcement order against Jane Street entities for manipulating BANKNIFTY index options.

2025 年，印度证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Board of India，SEBI）发布了一份长达 105 页的执法令，指控 Jane Street 相关实体操纵 BANKNIFTY 指数期权。

SEBI found that the firm used coordinated trading across cash and derivatives markets to generate ₹36,502 crore (approximately $4.3 billion) in profits over a two-year period, with ₹735 crore extracted in a single trading day.

SEBI 认定，该公司在现货与衍生品市场之间进行协同交易，在两年内获得 ₹36,502 crore（约 43 亿美元）的利润，并在单个交易日抽走了 ₹735 crore。

The regulator described the activity as clearly illegal in any country with a functioning financial regulator and issued interim restrictions on the firm's trading. Jane Street's strategies in Indian index derivatives followed a familiar structure: exploit privileged speed and scale to move one market, then harvest profits in the derivative layer sitting on top of it.

监管机构称，这种行为在任何拥有正常运作金融监管机构的国家都明显属于违法，并对该公司的交易发布了临时限制。Jane Street 在印度指数衍生品上的策略遵循一种熟悉的结构：利用其在速度与规模上的特权去撬动一个市场，然后在其上方叠加的衍生品层收割利润。

The question is whether the same logic applies to Bitcoin.

问题在于，同样的逻辑是否也适用于比特币。

21 Million

2100 万

The hard cap of 21M is enforced by the network of sovereign Bitcoin nodes.

2100 万枚的硬性上限由独立的比特币节点网络所执行。

The cap assumes that price discovery is honest, that the market reflects actual supply and demand, and that when institutions hold Bitcoin or Bitcoin-adjacent instruments, their positions represent genuine exposure to the asset rather than raw material for derivative strategies invisible to every other participant.

这一上限隐含的前提是：价格发现是诚实的；市场能反映真实的供需；机构持有比特币或与比特币相关的工具时，其头寸代表对资产的真实敞口，而不是被用作衍生品策略的原料——而这种策略对其他所有参与者都不可见。

In other words, the 21M cap only works if the market sitting on top of it is honest.

换言之，只有当建立在协议之上的市场是诚实的，2100 万上限才真正“起作用”。

Jane Street is one of four firms with the keys to Bitcoin's ETF infrastructure. It faces a federal lawsuit alleging insider-driven front-running that helped destroy $40 billion in value. It has been accused of running algorithmic sell programs that suppressed Bitcoin's price for months. And it holds the largest disclosed ETF position in Bitcoin while maintaining a derivative book that could make its actual exposure the opposite of what filings suggest.

Jane Street 是仅有四家握着比特币 ETF 基础设施“钥匙”的机构之一。它正面临一宗联邦诉讼，指称其通过内幕驱动的抢跑交易，协助造成 400 亿美元价值的毁灭。它还被指控运行算法化抛售程序，在数月间压制比特币价格。而与此同时，它披露的比特币 ETF 持仓规模是最大的，却又维持着一套衍生品账本，足以让其真实敞口与申报文件暗示的方向完全相反。

So then, the cap is irrelevant when Jane Street can fabricate unlimited synthetic supply through undisclosed derivatives stacked on top of its own ETF inventory.

因此，当 Jane Street 可以在自身 ETF 库存之上叠加未披露的衍生品，从而“制造”出无限的合成供给时，2100 万上限在价格层面就变得无关紧要。

Bitcoin's scarcity is real at the protocol level but the price discovery mechanism sitting above it has been compromised by a firm that treats privileged access as a profit engine, and the current disclosure framework lets them do it without anyone watching.

比特币在协议层面的稀缺性是真实的，但其上方的价格发现机制已被一家把特权接入当作利润引擎的机构所破坏，而现行披露框架又让它几乎可以在无人监督的情况下完成这一切。

Every Bitcoin holder deserves to know: what is Jane Street's actual net position?

每一位比特币持有者都理应知道：Jane Street 的真实净头寸究竟是什么？

Until we know, Jane Street decides the price of Bitcoin.

在我们弄清楚之前，比特币的价格就由 Jane Street 来决定。

Research from Negentropic (Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann), Michael Green, Ryan Scott, and Nik Bhatia informed portions of this analysis. The Terraform Labs lawsuit was filed February 24, 2026 in Manhattan federal court by administrator Todd Snyder. A separate $4 billion suit has been filed against Jump Trading. Jane Street has denied all allegations and called the Terraform lawsuit "baseless."

Negentropic（Glassnode 联合创始人 Jan Happel 与 Yann Allemann）、Michael Green、Ryan Scott 和 Nik Bhatia 的研究为本文部分分析提供了参考。Terraform Labs 的诉讼由管理人 Todd Snyder 于 2026 年 2 月 24 日在曼哈顿联邦法院提起。另有一宗针对 Jump Trading 的 40 亿美元诉讼已被提起。Jane Street 否认所有指控，并称 Terraform 的诉讼“毫无根据”。

Link: http://x.com/i/article/2026735453026631680

链接： http://x.com/i/article/2026735453026631680

相关笔记

The 10am Drop: How Jane Street Broke Bitcoin's Price

  • Source: https://x.com/1914ad/status/2026757796390449382?s=46
  • Mirror: https://x.com/1914ad/status/2026757796390449382?s=46
  • Published: 2026-02-25T20:34:48+00:00
  • Saved: 2026-02-26

Content

Bitcoin should be at least $150,000 right now and everyone knows it.

Yesterday, a federal lawsuit was filed in Manhattan that explains exactly why it isn't.

Let's connect three threads for the first time: a federal insider trading case built on a private chat group called "Bryce's Secret," a pattern of systematic 10am sell programs that suppressed Bitcoin's price through late 2025, and an undisclosed derivative book that may make the largest Bitcoin ETF position in history a tool for suppressing the price of Bitcoin.

All three threads lead back to one name: Jane Street Capital.

The Intern

It starts with an intern named Bryce Pratt.

Pratt worked as an intern at Terraform Labs, the Singapore-based company behind the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its token Luna. He left Terraform and joined Jane Street as a full-time employee in September 2021.

Jane Street is also where SBF learned to trade before founding FTX and Alameda Research, and many of his future colleagues came from the firm or intersected with its networks.

According to the lawsuit filed by Terraform's bankruptcy administrator Todd Snyder, Pratt became the bridge between his former employer and his new one through a chat group that court filings describe as "Bryce's Secret."

The lawsuit alleges that Jane Street used this channel to obtain material nonpublic information about Terraform's internal liquidity moves.

The critical moment came on May 7, 2022. Terraform withdrew $150 million in TerraUSD from Curve3pool, a decentralized trading platform that served as the primary liquidity hub for the stablecoin. Within ten minutes of that withdrawal, before Terraform informed the public or made any announcement, a wallet linked to Jane Street pulled $85 million in TerraUSD from the same pool.

The combined selling pressure helped trigger UST's break from its dollar peg. Within days, Luna's algorithmic mint-and-burn mechanism spiraled out of control, hyperinflating the token supply and destroying $40 billion in market value. Retail investors suffered catastrophic losses.

Jane Street, according to the lawsuit, avoided more than $200 million in potential exposure by unwinding its position at precisely the right moment, "mere hours before the Terraform ecosystem collapsed."

The lawsuit describes trades that "would have been impossible without inside information to which [Jane Street] had unique access."

Jane Street calls the suit "desperate" and "baseless," arguing that the losses suffered by Terra and Luna holders were caused by Terraform's own fraud.

Do Kwon is now serving a 15-year prison sentence. Snyder has also filed a separate $4 billion lawsuit against Jump Trading over alleged manipulation of the same collapse, which suggests a systematic investigation into institutional conduct during the Terra death spiral rather than just an isolated claim against a single firm.

The Clock

Beginning in late 2024 and accelerating through 2025, Bitcoin's price began doing something that traders noticed but couldn't explain.

Every trading day at 10am Eastern, coinciding with the U.S. stock market open, Bitcoin experienced sudden and sharp sell-offs. The drops were precise, algorithmic, and wildly disproportionate to broader market conditions. They wiped out leveraged long positions, triggered cascading liquidations, and then reversed within hours.

Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, the co-founders of blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, documented these patterns through their shared account Negentropic. They tracked the algorithmic precision of the drops across months of trading data, and the pattern was not subtle. Charts from December show Bitcoin falling from $89,700 to $87,700 within minutes of the 10am open, erasing $171 million in long positions before recovering.

This happened every day, day after day.

Jane Street, as a designated market maker and authorized participant for multiple Bitcoin ETFs, had both the inventory and the infrastructure to execute coordinated selling at scale during predictable liquidity windows. Selling into thin order books at the open would depress the price, trigger liquidation cascades among leveraged traders, and create buying opportunities at lower levels. The firm could then re-enter at the bottom of a move it had manufactured.

Then something revealing happened.

According to Glassnode's co-founders, the daily flash crashes ceased after the Terraform Labs lawsuit filings became public early last year. Bitcoin's price stabilized significantly in subsequent trading sessions. The behavioral change is consistent with a firm that suddenly had legal discovery and depositions to consider.

The 10am pattern resumed in late 2025. By December, it was back with full force.

Basically, the 10am dumps stopped the moment Jane Street had lawyers looking over its shoulder, and started again when the heat died down.

Whatever pressure had caused the pause was apparently no longer sufficient.

The Machine

In its Q4 2025 13F filing, Jane Street disclosed holding 20,315,780 shares of IBIT worth approximately $790 million. The firm added 7,105,206 shares during the quarter alone, a $276 million increase. At one point last year, its total IBIT position was valued at nearly $2.5 billion.

Simultaneously, the firm boosted its holdings of MicroStrategy stock by 473%, accumulating 951,187 shares worth roughly $121 million, even as BlackRock and Vanguard divested billions in MSTR during the same period.

This looks like bullish accumulation if you don't understand what Jane Street actually is.

Jane Street is one of only four firms authorized to conduct in-kind creations and redemptions for IBIT. The others are Virtu Americas, JP Morgan Securities, and Marex. Jane Street is also an authorized participant for Fidelity's and WisdomTree's Bitcoin ETFs. This role gives the firm direct access to the mechanism that connects ETF share prices to actual Bitcoin. Jane Street can move real Bitcoin into and out of the ETF structure, arbitrage price differences between the fund and the spot market, and maintain inventory positions that dwarf what any normal market participant could accumulate.

Basically, Jane Street has direct access to the pipe that connects the Bitcoin ETF to actual Bitcoin, and almost nobody else does.

The crypto press reported the 13F as a sign of institutional conviction. The people who actually understand market structure immediately said otherwise.

The Invisible Book

Former hedge fund manager Michael Green called the bullish interpretation of Jane Street's 13F "painful." He pointed out that Jane Street's IBIT position "is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options and futures positions" and that "they are certainly not 'accumulating' a position in Bitcoin. That's how market making works."

Former prop trader Ryan Scott was blunter: "Anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be 'You'll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported.'"

Nik Bhatia reduced it to incentives: "Jane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money."

Here is what this means for every person who holds Bitcoin or IBIT.

A 13F filing discloses long equity positions. It doesn't require disclosure of options, futures, or swaps. When Jane Street reports holding $790 million in IBIT shares, the filing tells you nothing about whether those shares are hedged by puts, offset by short futures, or wrapped in a collar that makes the firm's net Bitcoin exposure zero or even negative.

The public just sees accumulation. The actual position could be a massive short that looks like a long because the offsetting half of the trade is invisible under current disclosure rules.

The 13F is a photograph of one side of the balance sheet. Nobody outside the firm can see the other side.

This is where the question every Bitcoin holder should be asking becomes unavoidable. If the firm holds $790 million in IBIT shares and offsets that position with $790 million in put options or short futures, the net exposure is zero. If the derivative book exceeds the equity position, the net exposure is negative, meaning Jane Street profits when Bitcoin's price falls.

In either scenario, the firm has every incentive to use its privileged position as authorized participant to suppress the spot price, trigger liquidations, and harvest the spread.

What is Jane Street's actual net exposure to Bitcoin? The current disclosure framework does not require them to answer.

The Precedent

Jane Street's conduct in Bitcoin markets has not been tested by regulators. Its conduct in other markets has.

In 2025, the Securities and Exchange Board of India published a 105-page enforcement order against Jane Street entities for manipulating BANKNIFTY index options.

SEBI found that the firm used coordinated trading across cash and derivatives markets to generate ₹36,502 crore (approximately $4.3 billion) in profits over a two-year period, with ₹735 crore extracted in a single trading day.

The regulator described the activity as clearly illegal in any country with a functioning financial regulator and issued interim restrictions on the firm's trading. Jane Street's strategies in Indian index derivatives followed a familiar structure: exploit privileged speed and scale to move one market, then harvest profits in the derivative layer sitting on top of it.

The question is whether the same logic applies to Bitcoin.

21 Million

The hard cap of 21M is enforced by the network of sovereign Bitcoin nodes.

The cap assumes that price discovery is honest, that the market reflects actual supply and demand, and that when institutions hold Bitcoin or Bitcoin-adjacent instruments, their positions represent genuine exposure to the asset rather than raw material for derivative strategies invisible to every other participant.

In other words, the 21M cap only works if the market sitting on top of it is honest.

Jane Street is one of four firms with the keys to Bitcoin's ETF infrastructure. It faces a federal lawsuit alleging insider-driven front-running that helped destroy $40 billion in value. It has been accused of running algorithmic sell programs that suppressed Bitcoin's price for months. And it holds the largest disclosed ETF position in Bitcoin while maintaining a derivative book that could make its actual exposure the opposite of what filings suggest.

So then, the cap is irrelevant when Jane Street can fabricate unlimited synthetic supply through undisclosed derivatives stacked on top of its own ETF inventory.

Bitcoin's scarcity is real at the protocol level but the price discovery mechanism sitting above it has been compromised by a firm that treats privileged access as a profit engine, and the current disclosure framework lets them do it without anyone watching.

Every Bitcoin holder deserves to know: what is Jane Street's actual net position?

Until we know, Jane Street decides the price of Bitcoin.

Research from Negentropic (Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann), Michael Green, Ryan Scott, and Nik Bhatia informed portions of this analysis. The Terraform Labs lawsuit was filed February 24, 2026 in Manhattan federal court by administrator Todd Snyder. A separate $4 billion suit has been filed against Jump Trading. Jane Street has denied all allegations and called the Terraform lawsuit "baseless."

Link: http://x.com/i/article/2026735453026631680

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