AI 资本开支三条主线（存储/光子学/先进封装）已经明牌，散户别折腾上游小票，持有 $TSM 这种中心节点大概率跑赢。
### 👤ATou
1. AI CapEx 这波周期你觉得还能持续多久？会不会像上一轮云计算 CapEx 一样突然刹车？ 2. $TSM 的地缘风险（台海）你怎么定价？这个风险值得用多少仓位折扣？
对绝大多数散户而言：
如果你想抓住当下正在发生的资本开支（CapEx）趋势，我个人认为这些大概率是必配的：
存储 - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK
光子学 - $LITE, $COHR
CoWoS/代工/先进封装 - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC
往上游走，会有很多细微但关键的瓶颈，我常聊到的比如：
$AXTI 在光子学的基板/原材料（feedstock）层面；还有一些零散的小众玩家，比如 $AAOI 在 CPO 里的 ELS。$TER 或 $AEHR 看良率，或者 $TSEM 看 SiPh。甚至还有数据中心里的铜用量、以及从 unimicron 到其他厂商的基板环节。
在我看来，对 99% 的人来说，你完全可以开着“简单模式”过日子：不用每天追踪 X 上的更新，也不必细究 $AMKR 的资本开支到底流向哪里。
把那些供应链梳理/更新先放一边，干脆就持有像 $TSM 这种处在一切中心的位置，有时反而是更好的选择。
它大概率也会跑赢相当一部分上游玩家。
For the vast majority of retail:
对绝大多数散户而言：
If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo:
如果你想抓住当下正在发生的资本开支（CapEx）趋势，我个人认为这些大概率是必配的：
There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like :
往上游走，会有很多细微但关键的瓶颈，我常聊到的比如：
$AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others.
$AXTI 在光子学的基板/原材料（feedstock）层面；还有一些零散的小众玩家，比如 $AAOI 在 CPO 里的 ELS。$TER 或 $AEHR 看良率，或者 $TSEM 看 SiPh。甚至还有数据中心里的铜用量、以及从 unimicron 到其他厂商的基板环节。
My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes.
在我看来，对 99% 的人来说，你完全可以开着“简单模式”过日子：不用每天追踪 X 上的更新，也不必细究 $AMKR 的资本开支到底流向哪里。
Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do.
把那些供应链梳理/更新先放一边，干脆就持有像 $TSM 这种处在一切中心的位置，有时反而是更好的选择。
It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
它大概率也会跑赢相当一部分上游玩家。
For the vast majority of retail:
If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo:
Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK
Photonics - $LITE, $COHR
CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC
There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like :
$AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others.
My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes.
Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do.
It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
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