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AI与创造力:工具迭代还是认知替代?

AI并非人类创造力的终结者,而是推理效率的放大器;好莱坞的生存底线不在于抵制技术,而在于强制确立“同意、署名、补偿”的商业条款。
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2026-09-24 原文链接 ↗
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核心观点

  • AI的能力边界是“推理”而非“创造”:当前AI仅擅长模式匹配与逻辑优化,缺乏人类独有的意图、共情与面对空白画布做唯一选择的品味,短期内无法替代核心创意生成。
  • 技术革命的终局由“条款”而非“工具”决定:历史证明抵制技术必遭淘汰,但接受技术的前提是建立公平的版权与利益分配机制,谈判焦点必须从“是否使用”转向“如何补偿”。
  • 成本暴跌将重塑产业格局而非单纯降本:AI将在三年内削减90%的制作成本与时间,资本更可能借此转向算法流水线而非增加创意风险,中层执行岗位面临结构性淘汰。
  • 工具与原则必须分离:持久的是审美与想象力而非具体软件,创作者应将AI定位为扩展叙事边界的“乐器”,而非复刻旧流程的捷径。

跟我们的关联

  • 对ATou意味着需将AI严格限定为“推理执行层”,剥离对AI自主创意的幻想;下一步应在产品管线中强制划分“人类意图定义”与“AI批量渲染”双轨制,并提前起草内部AI数据使用与创作者分润条款。
  • 对Neta意味着出海业务不能依赖AI做文化情绪判断,技术堆叠无法击穿本地市场;下一步需将AI用于A/B测试与素材迭代,将核心预算倾斜给具备本土共情力的创意团队,建立“人类定调+AI放量”的增长模型。
  • 对Uota意味着技术投资逻辑需从“算力崇拜”转向“条款与生态绑定”;下一步在尽调AI应用项目时,必须审查其数据授权合规性、创作者补偿机制及是否具备不可替代的人类审美反馈环,否则不予重仓。

讨论引子

  • 当AI将内容试错成本降至趋近于零时,资本是会选择“更多元的高风险叙事”,还是直接转向“算法驱动的标准化流水线”?
  • 如果“推理”与“创造”的边界在未来两年内被多模态Agent彻底模糊,当前基于“人类独占意图”的版权补偿框架将如何重构?
  • 创作者应如何量化自身的“品味溢价”,以便在AI接管执行环节后,依然能在商业谈判中守住不可替代的议价权?

几个月前,我坐在硅谷的办公室里,看着一位科技创始人向我展示非凡的成果。屏幕上是一个制作精良、光影优美、构图考究的动画场景。它令人惊叹,让我完全找回了1986年观看《顽皮跳跳灯》(Luxo Jr.)时的感觉。那是我第一次看到电脑动画制作的3D角色仿佛有了呼吸,且违背常理地拥有了生命。这让我心生敬畏。

那天晚些时候,我收到了一位相识三十年的艺术家发来的短信,她在以南350英里外的那座城市,那也是我职业生涯大部分时间所在的地方。在看到一段类似的视频后,她发短信问:“这是我们的末日吗?”我的回答是:“当然不是。”

过去十年里,我大部分时间都在硅谷度过,但我职业生涯的核心一直在好莱坞。与这两个世界都有着深厚的联系,意味着我对它们都负有深厚的忠诚,并有责任对双方坦诚相待。

2023年,我曾说过,这些新的AI工具将在三年内把制作世界级动画的时间和成本削减多达百分之九十。一些同事感到惊恐,许多人感到愤怒。

在创意社区中,人们对AI的恐惧和抵制情绪日益增长。我深深理解这一点,因为我曾花无数时间穿梭于动画工作室,看着才华横溢的艺术家们伏在桌前,为了重建一秒钟的电影片段而第十次返工,只因为第九个版本还不够完美。我曾坐在放映室里,看着人们四年的心血在几分钟内播放完毕,我认识每一个花无数时间让那些画面栩栩如生的人的名字。创作过程是一种使命,真的没有其他词可以形容。从外部看,有些人看到的是抵制。从内部看,那是爱。

人们不会为了自己不在乎的东西如此拼命。好莱坞传出的抵制声浪,代表了那些对自己的手艺充满热忱的人们的集体努力。

历史正在重演吗?

这里的历史比双方意识到的都要复杂。1906年,美国最著名的作曲家John Philip Sousa发表了一篇题为《机械音乐的威胁》的文章。他警告说,留声机将成为“人类技巧、智慧和灵魂的替代品”。

Sousa的斗争其实不是为了机器,而是为了钱。机器在演奏他的作品,而制造机器的人却没有付给他一分钱。他的运动促成了1909年的《版权法》。他没有阻止技术。他改变了技术使用其作品的条款。

一百年前,声音进入了电影。我们现在将其视为奇迹,它确实是。我们忘记的是谁为此付出了代价。在有声音之前,数以万计的音乐家在电影院的乐池里谋生,每天晚上在世界各地的城镇里为每一部电影进行现场配乐。当电影原声带出现时,一位作曲家和一支管弦乐队的工作被录制下来,用于一部在数千家影院上映的电影。工会倾尽全力反击,在全国各地投放报纸广告,警告“罐头音乐”的威胁,其中一幅广告画着一个机械人正在扯断竖琴的琴弦,而一位天使在旁边哭泣。

他们不是傻瓜,也不是卢德分子。他们是对的。那些乐池里的工作再也没有回来。然而(这是我们必须有勇气承认的部分),声音为我们带来了音乐电影、现代配乐、音效、声音设计、音频工程,以及一种比它所颠覆的宏大得多的艺术形式。它还帮助好莱坞在整个世纪乃至下一个世纪一直处于世界娱乐的前沿。损失是真实的。然而艺术形式却得到了扩展。

这是一个被反复讲述的故事。抵制技术就有被淘汰的风险。看看Kodak或Blockbuster吧。拥抱技术就是打开新可能性的大门。想想Apple和Netflix吧。

我从Walt Disney身上学到了什么

在20世纪80年代中期,当工作室处于转折点时,我被选中领导Disney的动画部门。动画不仅仅是一个业务部门。它是公司的灵魂,是因为Walt的天才和热情而备受尊崇的媒介。但制作系统既繁琐又容错率低。一部电影需要125,000张单独手绘和上色的赛璐珞片,一帧一帧地拍摄。每一次修改都要以月为单位来衡量成本。这些难度等级塑造了我们能讲述的故事类型。

我们在一个意想不到的地方找到了前进的方向:Walt本人。Disney的档案室里保存着Walt解释其创作过程的惊人录音。还有他的亲笔手稿、笔记和故事板。捕捉了他在创作每个阶段的工作成果。这真是一份礼物。通过聆听、阅读、端详这些作品本身,我们听到他谈论角色,谈论情感,谈论当角色真正活过来时观众的感受。他谈论做出大胆的选择,并不断打磨场景直到真正打动人心。我们没有听到一个字提到铅笔或画笔。事实上,Walt作为一名技术专家而闻名,他永远在寻找最前沿的工具,并经常亲自发明它们,以实现他脑海中的画面。但他从未用工具来定义动画。他用观众是否相信角色来定义它。他的原则是永恒的。工具则不然。

这一认识改变了一切。我们与一家名叫Pixar的北加州年轻公司共同开发了计算机动画制作系统,用CGI取代了手绘赛璐珞片。在《小美人鱼》中,最后一幕闪烁着旧工艺根本无法实现的立体感和光影。在《美女与野兽》中,舞厅片段以一种电影般的磅礴气势移动,将观众带入了当下的情感之中。在《阿拉丁》中,奇迹之洞显得广阔而生动,魔毯本身也成了一个错综复杂、引人注目的角色。在《狮子王》中,狂奔的牛群带来了前所未有的规模和强度,将情感张力提升到了我们以往作品之上。技术并没有削弱手艺,而是扩展了画布。它给了艺术家更多的创作空间。

十年后,画布再次扩展。当Disney发行Pixar的《玩具总动员》时,这不仅仅是一个技术里程碑。它证明了一部全电脑动画电影能够承载真实的情感分量,能让观众笑、哭并信服。在DreamWorks,我们做出了艰难的决定,逐步淘汰手绘动画,成为一家全电脑动画工作室。这是正确的做法,但并非没有痛苦。它让一些才华横溢的人失去了他们毕生奋斗的行业中的位置。有些人跨越到了新工具,并创作出了他们职业生涯中最优秀的作品。有些人则没有。

工具从来都不是重点。每一代人的工具都在变。持久的是品味和想象力。是让观众产生共鸣的神奇能力。我们这个时代最伟大的故事讲述者之一,George Lucas,简洁地抓住了这个问题的永恒本质:“重要的不是怎么做,而是为什么做。”

意义重大的区别

我问了一个领先的AI模型一个困扰了我几个月的问题。推理和创造之间有什么区别?它的答案改变了我对这行里正在发生的几乎一切事情的看法。它说……

推理和创造是两种截然不同的认知模式,尽管它们也协同工作。推理从根本上说是评估性和分析性的。它作用于已存在的事物:事实、前提、证据。它朝着在某种意义上已经被输入所暗示的结论推进。推理受逻辑和真理的约束。它的目标是到达正确的地方,而不是发明新的地方。

创造从根本上说是生成性的。它产生了以前不存在的东西。关键是,没有一个唯一正确的答案在等待着被发现。一张白纸有无限种有效的回应。创造涉及的选择无法仅靠逻辑来完全证明其合理性。品味、直觉和愿景填补了演绎失效后留下的空白。

推理是硅谷一直在完善的。创造是好莱坞一个多世纪以来一直在实践的。今天的AI几乎完全在这条线的推理一侧运作。它可以出色地进行演绎、评估、优化和模式匹配。虽然它能创造,但“能创造”和“具有创造力”之间有着真正的区别。它所不具备的,正是那些让我们成为人类的东西:同理心、奉献、机缘巧合,以及那种源于一个人试图表达只有他们才能说出的话的创造力。当机器人生成一件艺术品时,它并没有试图传达任何东西。它是统计学,而不是灵魂;它在模仿已经做过的事情。相比之下,人类的创造力不在于重复0和1的模式;而在于做一些全新的事情。

总有一天,AI可能会弥合这一差距。三年前,构建AI的领导者们会把他们今天所取得的成就称为不可能,或者至少是不大可能的。不可能不再是“不大可能”了。

今天,推理和创造之间的界限是真实存在的。即使是顶尖的技术专家也承认我们还没有达到那一步。目前该领域的任何人都无法阐明跨越这一鸿沟的科学路径。理解这一差距,将是我们找到共同基础的关键。

前进之路

2016年,随着DreamWorks被收购,我结束了在好莱坞的一个篇章,并在北加州开启了新篇章,联合创立了WndrCo。我们投资了50多位正在构建下一代技术的创始人,并观察了硅谷的突破是如何涌现的:起初是实验,然后是平台,最后是重塑整个产业的基础设施。值得一提的是,上一次动画界的伟大革命同样来自北方。Pixar是一家北加州公司,它并非诞生于好莱坞制片厂体系的惯例之中,而是 forged 于硅谷的技术突破。在这座桥梁的两端,我花费了数年时间。当然,我并没有所有的答案(以Quibi为例!)。但是,基于我漫长职业生涯中过去和现在的视角,以下是我所看到的……

北加州构建这项技术的杰出人才们创造了非凡的成就。他们让我们其余人有权利成为信徒,或者至少乐观地认为接下来的事物将是非凡的。但他们并没有创造出艺术家。工具很强大,但它们并不是让故事产生意义的关键。那种认知存在于以南350英里外的人身上,他们毕生的工作为你正在构建的模型提供了信息。正确的前进之路应当在设计中包含他们,给予署名、征得同意并给予补偿。与讲故事的人一起构建它。而不是凌驾于他们之上。品味是无法合成的,它是人类独有的。

同时,好莱坞需要接受AI不会消失的事实。他们花在试图让它消失上的精力,并没有花在决定它将以何种条款存在上。而条款决定了一切。北方需要从中获得他们无法构建也无法购买的东西:创造力。那种面对一张白纸,能在原本没有答案的地方变出唯一正确答案,并让受众为之着迷了一个世纪的创造力。没有它,有史以来发明的最强大的推理引擎仍将缺失唯一能让故事值得讲述的东西。

学会挥舞这些新乐器的艺术家们将做出工程师们梦寐以求的事情。他们一直如此。Edison发明了电影,但拍出的电影却很糟糕。是Chaplin、Lloyd、Keaton和许多其他人让电影有了情感。现在,画布即将再次扩展。我们现在就应该决定,我们要在上面作画。

历史中有太多宝贵的教训。这种情况以前发生过很多次,而且从未由技术来终结。它是由条款来终结的。Sousa没有阻止留声机;他帮助起草了确保作曲家获得报酬的法律。两年前,当编剧和演员罢工时,他们为之争取的正是Sousa在1906年争取的那些东西。同意、补偿,以及人类创造性工作有必须支付的价格的基本认可。那场斗争的条款仍在谈判中,但这个原则比我们任何人都要古老。

工具与非工具的争论是一个陷阱。首先,我们必须达成共识:必须有条款。然后我们才能就公平性要求什么进行关键的辩论。

我从Steve Jobs身上学到了什么

多年前,Steve Jobs说过:“Apple的DNA中蕴含着这样一种理念:仅有技术是不够的。只有将技术与文科、与人文学科相结合,才能产生让我们心灵歌唱的成果。”他当时在描述一款设备。但他同样可以是在描述这个双城记。

我看到的即将到来的未来

随着门槛和成本的降低,制作出的电影会更多,而不是更少。制片厂将能够承担更多风险。谈判桌前将有更多席位,并且很快会出现全新的叙事形式。在20世纪80年代,动画被贬为行业中的一个边缘角落。如今,它是世界上最受喜爱、最赚钱的叙事形式之一。在真人电影领域,像Steven Spielberg、James Cameron和Peter Jackson这样的电影制作人拥抱新的视觉工具,不是将其视为捷径,而是视为乐器,并在此过程中拓展了电影艺术。每一次叙事与真正的技术变革相遇,从同步声音到色彩再到电脑动画,它都重新定义了媒介的边界,并在此过程中变得更加宏大。

诚然,我没有所有的答案,但我确信创作机会将再次扩展。我们如何度过这一关是一个选择。北方拥有新工具。南方拥有创意灵魂。最好的未来将汲取这两个世界的精华。

The World is Changing: AI For Creativity A few months ago, I sat in my office in Silicon Valley and watched as a tech founder showed me something extraordinary. On the screen was a fully realized, beautifully lit, well-composed animated scene. It was stunning and it made me feel exactly what I felt in 1986 watching Luxo Jr. That was the first time I watched a computer-animated 3D character take a breath and seem, against all reason, to have life. It left me in awe.

Later that day, I received a text from an artist I've known for thirty years, 350 miles to the south, in the city where I spent most of my career. After seeing a similar video, she texted: "Is this the end of us?" My answer was, "Certainly not.”

I have spent the better part of the last decade in Silicon Valley, but the heart of my career has been in Hollywood. Being deeply connected to both worlds means I have deep loyalties to each and a responsibility to speak honestly to both.

In 2023, I said that these new AI tools would cut the time and cost of producing world-class animation by as much as ninety percent within three years. Some colleagues were alarmed, many were furious.

There is growing fear and resistance surrounding AI within the creative community. I deeply understand it, because I've spent countless hours walking through animation studios watching gifted artists bent over their desks, rebuilding a single second of film for the tenth time because the ninth version wasn't quite right. I've sat in screening rooms where four years of people's labor played out in minutes, and I knew the name of every person that had spent countless hours bringing those images to life. The creative process is a calling, there's really no other way to describe it. From the outside some see resistance. From the inside, it is love.

People do not fight this hard for things they don't care about. The pushback coming out of Hollywood represents the collective effort of people who are deeply passionate about their craft.

Is History Repeating Itself?

The history here is more complicated than either side may realize. In 1906, the most famous composer in America, John Philip Sousa, published an essay titled “The Menace of Mechanical Music." He warned that the phonograph would become "a substitute for human skill, intelligence and soul."

Sousa's fight was not really about the machine, it was about money. The machines were playing his compositions, and the men who built them weren't paying him a cent. His campaign helped create the Copyright Act of 1909. He did not stop the technology. He changed the terms under which it could use his work. A hundred years ago, sound came to the movies. We remember it now as a miracle, and it was. What we forget is who paid for it. Before sound, tens of thousands of musicians made their living in the orchestra pits of movie houses, scoring every film live, every night, in towns all over the world. When the soundtrack arrived, the work of one composer and one orchestra was recorded for a film that went into thousands of theaters. The union fought back with everything it had, taking out newspaper ads across the country warning against the menace of "canned music," one of them showing a mechanical man tearing the strings out of a harp while an angel wept.

They were not fools, and they were not Luddites. They were right. Those pit jobs did not come back. And yet (this is the part we have to be brave enough to admit), sound gave us the movie musical, the modern score, sfx, sound design, audio engineering, and an art form vastly larger than the one it disrupted. And it helped keep Hollywood in the forefront of world entertainment for the rest of the century and into the next. The loss was real. And yet the art form expanded.

This is a story that has been told over and over again. To resist technology is to risk irrelevance. Just look at Kodak or Blockbuster. To embrace technology is to open doors of new possibility. Just consider Apple and Netflix.

What I Learned From Walt Disney

In the mid-1980s, I was tapped to lead Disney's animation division at a moment when the studio was at an inflection point. Animation wasn't just another business unit. It was the soul of the company, a medium revered because of Walt's genius and his passion. But the production system was cumbersome and unforgiving. A single movie was 125,000 individual hand-drawn and painted cels, photographed one frame at a time. Every revision carried a cost measured in months. These degrees of difficulty shaped the kinds of stories we could tell.

We found our way forward in an unexpected place: Walt himself. The Disney archives held astonishing recordings of Walt explaining his creative process. His own writings. His notes and storyboards. Work product captured at every stage of his process. This was truly a gift. Listening, reading, sitting with the work itself, we heard him talk about character, about emotion, about how an audience feels when a character truly comes alive. He talked about making bold choices and refining a scene until it genuinely moved people. We didn't hear a word about pencils or paintbrushes. In fact, Walt was famous for being a technologist, forever hunting for state-of-the-art tools, often inventing them himself to achieve the images he saw in his head. But he never defined animation by the tools. He defined it by whether the audience believed the character. His principles were timeless. The tools were not.

That realization changed everything. We co-developed the Computer Animation Production System (CAPS) with a young Northern California company called Pixar, replacing hand-painted cels with CGI. In The Little Mermaid, the final scene shimmered with a dimensionality and light that the old process simply couldn't achieve. In Beauty and the Beast, the ballroom sequence moved with a cinematic sweep that placed the audience inside the emotion of the moment. In Aladdin, the Cave of Wonders felt vast and alive, and the Magic Carpet became an intricate, compelling character all its own. In The Lion King, the stampede carried a scale and intensity that raised the emotional stakes beyond anything we'd done before. Technology didn't diminish the craft, it expanded the canvas. It gave artists more room to create.

A decade later, the canvas expanded again. When Disney released Pixar's Toy Story, it wasn't simply a technical milestone. It was proof that a fully computer-animated film could carry real emotional weight, that it could make audiences laugh, cry, and believe. At DreamWorks, we made the difficult decision to sunset hand-drawn animation and become a fully computer-animated studio. It was the right thing to do, but it was not without pain. It cost talented people their place in an industry where they had worked their whole lives. Some made the leap to the new tools and did the finest work of their careers. Some never did.

Tools are never the point. The instruments change with every generation. What endures is taste and imagination. The magical ability to make an audience feel. One of the greatest storytellers of our generation, George Lucas, succinctly captured the eternal essence of this issue: “It’s not the how, it’s the why.”

A Distinction With a Difference

I asked one of the leading AI models a question that has been challenging me for months. What is the difference between reasoning and creating? Its answer changed how I think about almost everything happening in this industry. It said . . .

Reasoning and creating are two distinct cognitive modes, though they also work together. Reasoning is fundamentally evaluative and analytical. It operates on what already exists: facts, premises, evidence. It moves toward a conclusion that was in a sense already implied by the input. Reasoning is constrained by logic and truth. Its goal is to arrive somewhere correct, not to invent somewhere new.

Creating is fundamentally generative. It produces something that didn't exist before. And crucially, there's no single right answer waiting to be found. A blank page has infinite valid responses. Creation involves choices that can't be fully justified by logic alone. Taste, intuition and vision fill the gap where deduction runs out.

Reasoning is what Silicon Valley has been perfecting. Creating is what Hollywood has been practicing for more than a century. AI today operates almost entirely on the reasoning side of the line. It can deduce, evaluate, optimize, and pattern-match brilliantly. And while it can create, there is a real distinction to being creative. What it doesn’t yet have is those things that make us human: empathy, devotion, serendipity, the kind of creativity that comes from a person trying to say something only they could say. When the bot generates a piece of art, it is not trying to communicate anything. It is statistics, not soul; it is emulating things that have been done. By contrast, human creativity isn’t about repeating patterns of zeros and ones; it is about doing something new.

One day, AI may close this gap. Three years ago, the leaders building AI would have called what they are achieving today, improbable, if not impossible. Impossible is no longer improbable.

Today, the line between reasoning and creating is real. Even the leading technologists acknowledge we are not there yet. There is no scientific path to crossing this divide that anyone in the field can articulate today. Understanding that gap is where we will find common ground.

A Path Forward

In 2016, I closed one chapter in Hollywood with the sale of DreamWorks and opened another in Northern California, co-founding WndrCo. We’ve backed more than 50 founders building the next generation of technology and watched how breakthroughs in Silicon Valley emerge, first as experiments, then as platforms, and finally as infrastructure that reshapes entire industries. It's worth remembering that the last great revolution in animation also came from the north. Pixar was a Northern California company, forged not in the conventions of the Hollywood studio system, but in the technological breakthroughs of Silicon Valley. I've spent years on both sides of this bridge. For sure, I don’t have all the answers (take Quibi, for one!). But, from my past and present vantage points of my long career, here is what I see . . .

Brilliant people in Northern California building this technology have made something extraordinary. They have earned the right for the rest of us to be, if not believers, at least optimistic that what comes next will be remarkable. But they have not made an artist. The tools are powerful, but they are not what makes a story matter. That knowledge lives 350 miles to the south, inside people whose life's work has informed the very models you are building. The right path forward includes them by design, with credit, with consent, and with compensation. Build this with the storytellers. Not on top of them. Taste is not something that can be synthesized, it is uniquely human.

At the same time, Hollywood needs to accept that AI is not going away. The energy they are spending trying to make it disappear is energy they are not spending deciding the terms on which it will exist. And the terms are everything. The north needs something from it that they cannot build and cannot buy: creativity. The kind that takes a blank page and conjures a single right answer where there was none and has held audiences for a century. Without it, the most powerful reasoning engine ever invented will still be missing the only thing that makes a story worth telling.

The artists who learn to wield these new instruments will do things the engineers never dreamed of. They always have. Edison invented the motion picture but made terrible movies. It took Chaplin, Lloyd, Keaton and so many others to make movies emotional. Now, the canvas is about to expand yet again. We should decide now that we intend to paint on it.

There are so many valuable lessons in history. This has happened many times before, and it was never settled by the technology. It was settled by the terms. Sousa did not stop the phonograph; he helped write the law that made sure composers got paid. And two years ago, when the writers and the actors walked out, they were fighting for the very things Sousa was fighting for in 1906. Consent, compensation, the basic recognition that human creative work has a price that must be paid. The terms of that fight are still being negotiated, but the principle is older than any of us.

The tools-versus-no-tools argument is a trap. First, we must all agree that there should be terms. Then we can have the crucial debate about what fairness requires.

What I Learned From Steve Jobs

Years ago, Steve Jobs said, "It's in Apple's DNA that technology alone is not enough. It's technology married with the liberal arts, married with the humanities, that yields us the result that makes our hearts sing." He was describing a device. But he could just as easily have been describing this tale of two cities.

What I See Coming Soon

As the barriers and the costs come down, more films will get made, not fewer. Studios will get to take more risks. There will be more seats at the table, and very soon entirely new forms of storytelling. In the 1980s, animation was dismissed as a niche corner of the business. Today it is one of the most beloved and profitable forms of storytelling in the world. In live action, filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, James Cameron and Peter Jackson embraced new visual tools not as shortcuts, but as instruments, and expanded cinema in the process. Every time storytelling has met a genuine technological shift, from synchronized sound to color to computer animation, it has redefined the boundaries of the medium and grown larger in the process.

Assuredly, I don’t have all the answers, but I am confident that the creative opportunities will expand yet again. How we come through this is a choice. The north has the new tools. The south has the creative soul. The best future will draw on the best of both worlds.

几个月前,我坐在硅谷的办公室里,看着一位科技创始人向我展示非凡的成果。屏幕上是一个制作精良、光影优美、构图考究的动画场景。它令人惊叹,让我完全找回了1986年观看《顽皮跳跳灯》(Luxo Jr.)时的感觉。那是我第一次看到电脑动画制作的3D角色仿佛有了呼吸,且违背常理地拥有了生命。这让我心生敬畏。

那天晚些时候,我收到了一位相识三十年的艺术家发来的短信,她在以南350英里外的那座城市,那也是我职业生涯大部分时间所在的地方。在看到一段类似的视频后,她发短信问:“这是我们的末日吗?”我的回答是:“当然不是。”

过去十年里,我大部分时间都在硅谷度过,但我职业生涯的核心一直在好莱坞。与这两个世界都有着深厚的联系,意味着我对它们都负有深厚的忠诚,并有责任对双方坦诚相待。

2023年,我曾说过,这些新的AI工具将在三年内把制作世界级动画的时间和成本削减多达百分之九十。一些同事感到惊恐,许多人感到愤怒。

在创意社区中,人们对AI的恐惧和抵制情绪日益增长。我深深理解这一点,因为我曾花无数时间穿梭于动画工作室,看着才华横溢的艺术家们伏在桌前,为了重建一秒钟的电影片段而第十次返工,只因为第九个版本还不够完美。我曾坐在放映室里,看着人们四年的心血在几分钟内播放完毕,我认识每一个花无数时间让那些画面栩栩如生的人的名字。创作过程是一种使命,真的没有其他词可以形容。从外部看,有些人看到的是抵制。从内部看,那是爱。

人们不会为了自己不在乎的东西如此拼命。好莱坞传出的抵制声浪,代表了那些对自己的手艺充满热忱的人们的集体努力。

历史正在重演吗?

这里的历史比双方意识到的都要复杂。1906年,美国最著名的作曲家John Philip Sousa发表了一篇题为《机械音乐的威胁》的文章。他警告说,留声机将成为“人类技巧、智慧和灵魂的替代品”。

Sousa的斗争其实不是为了机器,而是为了钱。机器在演奏他的作品,而制造机器的人却没有付给他一分钱。他的运动促成了1909年的《版权法》。他没有阻止技术。他改变了技术使用其作品的条款。

一百年前,声音进入了电影。我们现在将其视为奇迹,它确实是。我们忘记的是谁为此付出了代价。在有声音之前,数以万计的音乐家在电影院的乐池里谋生,每天晚上在世界各地的城镇里为每一部电影进行现场配乐。当电影原声带出现时,一位作曲家和一支管弦乐队的工作被录制下来,用于一部在数千家影院上映的电影。工会倾尽全力反击,在全国各地投放报纸广告,警告“罐头音乐”的威胁,其中一幅广告画着一个机械人正在扯断竖琴的琴弦,而一位天使在旁边哭泣。

他们不是傻瓜,也不是卢德分子。他们是对的。那些乐池里的工作再也没有回来。然而(这是我们必须有勇气承认的部分),声音为我们带来了音乐电影、现代配乐、音效、声音设计、音频工程,以及一种比它所颠覆的宏大得多的艺术形式。它还帮助好莱坞在整个世纪乃至下一个世纪一直处于世界娱乐的前沿。损失是真实的。然而艺术形式却得到了扩展。

这是一个被反复讲述的故事。抵制技术就有被淘汰的风险。看看Kodak或Blockbuster吧。拥抱技术就是打开新可能性的大门。想想Apple和Netflix吧。

我从Walt Disney身上学到了什么

在20世纪80年代中期,当工作室处于转折点时,我被选中领导Disney的动画部门。动画不仅仅是一个业务部门。它是公司的灵魂,是因为Walt的天才和热情而备受尊崇的媒介。但制作系统既繁琐又容错率低。一部电影需要125,000张单独手绘和上色的赛璐珞片,一帧一帧地拍摄。每一次修改都要以月为单位来衡量成本。这些难度等级塑造了我们能讲述的故事类型。

我们在一个意想不到的地方找到了前进的方向:Walt本人。Disney的档案室里保存着Walt解释其创作过程的惊人录音。还有他的亲笔手稿、笔记和故事板。捕捉了他在创作每个阶段的工作成果。这真是一份礼物。通过聆听、阅读、端详这些作品本身,我们听到他谈论角色,谈论情感,谈论当角色真正活过来时观众的感受。他谈论做出大胆的选择,并不断打磨场景直到真正打动人心。我们没有听到一个字提到铅笔或画笔。事实上,Walt作为一名技术专家而闻名,他永远在寻找最前沿的工具,并经常亲自发明它们,以实现他脑海中的画面。但他从未用工具来定义动画。他用观众是否相信角色来定义它。他的原则是永恒的。工具则不然。

这一认识改变了一切。我们与一家名叫Pixar的北加州年轻公司共同开发了计算机动画制作系统,用CGI取代了手绘赛璐珞片。在《小美人鱼》中,最后一幕闪烁着旧工艺根本无法实现的立体感和光影。在《美女与野兽》中,舞厅片段以一种电影般的磅礴气势移动,将观众带入了当下的情感之中。在《阿拉丁》中,奇迹之洞显得广阔而生动,魔毯本身也成了一个错综复杂、引人注目的角色。在《狮子王》中,狂奔的牛群带来了前所未有的规模和强度,将情感张力提升到了我们以往作品之上。技术并没有削弱手艺,而是扩展了画布。它给了艺术家更多的创作空间。

十年后,画布再次扩展。当Disney发行Pixar的《玩具总动员》时,这不仅仅是一个技术里程碑。它证明了一部全电脑动画电影能够承载真实的情感分量,能让观众笑、哭并信服。在DreamWorks,我们做出了艰难的决定,逐步淘汰手绘动画,成为一家全电脑动画工作室。这是正确的做法,但并非没有痛苦。它让一些才华横溢的人失去了他们毕生奋斗的行业中的位置。有些人跨越到了新工具,并创作出了他们职业生涯中最优秀的作品。有些人则没有。

工具从来都不是重点。每一代人的工具都在变。持久的是品味和想象力。是让观众产生共鸣的神奇能力。我们这个时代最伟大的故事讲述者之一,George Lucas,简洁地抓住了这个问题的永恒本质:“重要的不是怎么做,而是为什么做。”

意义重大的区别

我问了一个领先的AI模型一个困扰了我几个月的问题。推理和创造之间有什么区别?它的答案改变了我对这行里正在发生的几乎一切事情的看法。它说……

推理和创造是两种截然不同的认知模式,尽管它们也协同工作。推理从根本上说是评估性和分析性的。它作用于已存在的事物:事实、前提、证据。它朝着在某种意义上已经被输入所暗示的结论推进。推理受逻辑和真理的约束。它的目标是到达正确的地方,而不是发明新的地方。

创造从根本上说是生成性的。它产生了以前不存在的东西。关键是,没有一个唯一正确的答案在等待着被发现。一张白纸有无限种有效的回应。创造涉及的选择无法仅靠逻辑来完全证明其合理性。品味、直觉和愿景填补了演绎失效后留下的空白。

推理是硅谷一直在完善的。创造是好莱坞一个多世纪以来一直在实践的。今天的AI几乎完全在这条线的推理一侧运作。它可以出色地进行演绎、评估、优化和模式匹配。虽然它能创造,但“能创造”和“具有创造力”之间有着真正的区别。它所不具备的,正是那些让我们成为人类的东西:同理心、奉献、机缘巧合,以及那种源于一个人试图表达只有他们才能说出的话的创造力。当机器人生成一件艺术品时,它并没有试图传达任何东西。它是统计学,而不是灵魂;它在模仿已经做过的事情。相比之下,人类的创造力不在于重复0和1的模式;而在于做一些全新的事情。

总有一天,AI可能会弥合这一差距。三年前,构建AI的领导者们会把他们今天所取得的成就称为不可能,或者至少是不大可能的。不可能不再是“不大可能”了。

今天,推理和创造之间的界限是真实存在的。即使是顶尖的技术专家也承认我们还没有达到那一步。目前该领域的任何人都无法阐明跨越这一鸿沟的科学路径。理解这一差距,将是我们找到共同基础的关键。

前进之路

2016年,随着DreamWorks被收购,我结束了在好莱坞的一个篇章,并在北加州开启了新篇章,联合创立了WndrCo。我们投资了50多位正在构建下一代技术的创始人,并观察了硅谷的突破是如何涌现的:起初是实验,然后是平台,最后是重塑整个产业的基础设施。值得一提的是,上一次动画界的伟大革命同样来自北方。Pixar是一家北加州公司,它并非诞生于好莱坞制片厂体系的惯例之中,而是 forged 于硅谷的技术突破。在这座桥梁的两端,我花费了数年时间。当然,我并没有所有的答案(以Quibi为例!)。但是,基于我漫长职业生涯中过去和现在的视角,以下是我所看到的……

北加州构建这项技术的杰出人才们创造了非凡的成就。他们让我们其余人有权利成为信徒,或者至少乐观地认为接下来的事物将是非凡的。但他们并没有创造出艺术家。工具很强大,但它们并不是让故事产生意义的关键。那种认知存在于以南350英里外的人身上,他们毕生的工作为你正在构建的模型提供了信息。正确的前进之路应当在设计中包含他们,给予署名、征得同意并给予补偿。与讲故事的人一起构建它。而不是凌驾于他们之上。品味是无法合成的,它是人类独有的。

同时,好莱坞需要接受AI不会消失的事实。他们花在试图让它消失上的精力,并没有花在决定它将以何种条款存在上。而条款决定了一切。北方需要从中获得他们无法构建也无法购买的东西:创造力。那种面对一张白纸,能在原本没有答案的地方变出唯一正确答案,并让受众为之着迷了一个世纪的创造力。没有它,有史以来发明的最强大的推理引擎仍将缺失唯一能让故事值得讲述的东西。

学会挥舞这些新乐器的艺术家们将做出工程师们梦寐以求的事情。他们一直如此。Edison发明了电影,但拍出的电影却很糟糕。是Chaplin、Lloyd、Keaton和许多其他人让电影有了情感。现在,画布即将再次扩展。我们现在就应该决定,我们要在上面作画。

历史中有太多宝贵的教训。这种情况以前发生过很多次,而且从未由技术来终结。它是由条款来终结的。Sousa没有阻止留声机;他帮助起草了确保作曲家获得报酬的法律。两年前,当编剧和演员罢工时,他们为之争取的正是Sousa在1906年争取的那些东西。同意、补偿,以及人类创造性工作有必须支付的价格的基本认可。那场斗争的条款仍在谈判中,但这个原则比我们任何人都要古老。

工具与非工具的争论是一个陷阱。首先,我们必须达成共识:必须有条款。然后我们才能就公平性要求什么进行关键的辩论。

我从Steve Jobs身上学到了什么

多年前,Steve Jobs说过:“Apple的DNA中蕴含着这样一种理念:仅有技术是不够的。只有将技术与文科、与人文学科相结合,才能产生让我们心灵歌唱的成果。”他当时在描述一款设备。但他同样可以是在描述这个双城记。

我看到的即将到来的未来

随着门槛和成本的降低,制作出的电影会更多,而不是更少。制片厂将能够承担更多风险。谈判桌前将有更多席位,并且很快会出现全新的叙事形式。在20世纪80年代,动画被贬为行业中的一个边缘角落。如今,它是世界上最受喜爱、最赚钱的叙事形式之一。在真人电影领域,像Steven Spielberg、James Cameron和Peter Jackson这样的电影制作人拥抱新的视觉工具,不是将其视为捷径,而是视为乐器,并在此过程中拓展了电影艺术。每一次叙事与真正的技术变革相遇,从同步声音到色彩再到电脑动画,它都重新定义了媒介的边界,并在此过程中变得更加宏大。

诚然,我没有所有的答案,但我确信创作机会将再次扩展。我们如何度过这一关是一个选择。北方拥有新工具。南方拥有创意灵魂。最好的未来将汲取这两个世界的精华。

The World is Changing: AI For Creativity A few months ago, I sat in my office in Silicon Valley and watched as a tech founder showed me something extraordinary. On the screen was a fully realized, beautifully lit, well-composed animated scene. It was stunning and it made me feel exactly what I felt in 1986 watching Luxo Jr. That was the first time I watched a computer-animated 3D character take a breath and seem, against all reason, to have life. It left me in awe.

Later that day, I received a text from an artist I've known for thirty years, 350 miles to the south, in the city where I spent most of my career. After seeing a similar video, she texted: "Is this the end of us?" My answer was, "Certainly not.”

I have spent the better part of the last decade in Silicon Valley, but the heart of my career has been in Hollywood. Being deeply connected to both worlds means I have deep loyalties to each and a responsibility to speak honestly to both.

In 2023, I said that these new AI tools would cut the time and cost of producing world-class animation by as much as ninety percent within three years. Some colleagues were alarmed, many were furious.

There is growing fear and resistance surrounding AI within the creative community. I deeply understand it, because I've spent countless hours walking through animation studios watching gifted artists bent over their desks, rebuilding a single second of film for the tenth time because the ninth version wasn't quite right. I've sat in screening rooms where four years of people's labor played out in minutes, and I knew the name of every person that had spent countless hours bringing those images to life. The creative process is a calling, there's really no other way to describe it. From the outside some see resistance. From the inside, it is love.

People do not fight this hard for things they don't care about. The pushback coming out of Hollywood represents the collective effort of people who are deeply passionate about their craft.

Is History Repeating Itself?

The history here is more complicated than either side may realize. In 1906, the most famous composer in America, John Philip Sousa, published an essay titled “The Menace of Mechanical Music." He warned that the phonograph would become "a substitute for human skill, intelligence and soul."

Sousa's fight was not really about the machine, it was about money. The machines were playing his compositions, and the men who built them weren't paying him a cent. His campaign helped create the Copyright Act of 1909. He did not stop the technology. He changed the terms under which it could use his work. A hundred years ago, sound came to the movies. We remember it now as a miracle, and it was. What we forget is who paid for it. Before sound, tens of thousands of musicians made their living in the orchestra pits of movie houses, scoring every film live, every night, in towns all over the world. When the soundtrack arrived, the work of one composer and one orchestra was recorded for a film that went into thousands of theaters. The union fought back with everything it had, taking out newspaper ads across the country warning against the menace of "canned music," one of them showing a mechanical man tearing the strings out of a harp while an angel wept.

They were not fools, and they were not Luddites. They were right. Those pit jobs did not come back. And yet (this is the part we have to be brave enough to admit), sound gave us the movie musical, the modern score, sfx, sound design, audio engineering, and an art form vastly larger than the one it disrupted. And it helped keep Hollywood in the forefront of world entertainment for the rest of the century and into the next. The loss was real. And yet the art form expanded.

This is a story that has been told over and over again. To resist technology is to risk irrelevance. Just look at Kodak or Blockbuster. To embrace technology is to open doors of new possibility. Just consider Apple and Netflix.

What I Learned From Walt Disney

In the mid-1980s, I was tapped to lead Disney's animation division at a moment when the studio was at an inflection point. Animation wasn't just another business unit. It was the soul of the company, a medium revered because of Walt's genius and his passion. But the production system was cumbersome and unforgiving. A single movie was 125,000 individual hand-drawn and painted cels, photographed one frame at a time. Every revision carried a cost measured in months. These degrees of difficulty shaped the kinds of stories we could tell.

We found our way forward in an unexpected place: Walt himself. The Disney archives held astonishing recordings of Walt explaining his creative process. His own writings. His notes and storyboards. Work product captured at every stage of his process. This was truly a gift. Listening, reading, sitting with the work itself, we heard him talk about character, about emotion, about how an audience feels when a character truly comes alive. He talked about making bold choices and refining a scene until it genuinely moved people. We didn't hear a word about pencils or paintbrushes. In fact, Walt was famous for being a technologist, forever hunting for state-of-the-art tools, often inventing them himself to achieve the images he saw in his head. But he never defined animation by the tools. He defined it by whether the audience believed the character. His principles were timeless. The tools were not.

That realization changed everything. We co-developed the Computer Animation Production System (CAPS) with a young Northern California company called Pixar, replacing hand-painted cels with CGI. In The Little Mermaid, the final scene shimmered with a dimensionality and light that the old process simply couldn't achieve. In Beauty and the Beast, the ballroom sequence moved with a cinematic sweep that placed the audience inside the emotion of the moment. In Aladdin, the Cave of Wonders felt vast and alive, and the Magic Carpet became an intricate, compelling character all its own. In The Lion King, the stampede carried a scale and intensity that raised the emotional stakes beyond anything we'd done before. Technology didn't diminish the craft, it expanded the canvas. It gave artists more room to create.

A decade later, the canvas expanded again. When Disney released Pixar's Toy Story, it wasn't simply a technical milestone. It was proof that a fully computer-animated film could carry real emotional weight, that it could make audiences laugh, cry, and believe. At DreamWorks, we made the difficult decision to sunset hand-drawn animation and become a fully computer-animated studio. It was the right thing to do, but it was not without pain. It cost talented people their place in an industry where they had worked their whole lives. Some made the leap to the new tools and did the finest work of their careers. Some never did.

Tools are never the point. The instruments change with every generation. What endures is taste and imagination. The magical ability to make an audience feel. One of the greatest storytellers of our generation, George Lucas, succinctly captured the eternal essence of this issue: “It’s not the how, it’s the why.”

A Distinction With a Difference

I asked one of the leading AI models a question that has been challenging me for months. What is the difference between reasoning and creating? Its answer changed how I think about almost everything happening in this industry. It said . . .

Reasoning and creating are two distinct cognitive modes, though they also work together. Reasoning is fundamentally evaluative and analytical. It operates on what already exists: facts, premises, evidence. It moves toward a conclusion that was in a sense already implied by the input. Reasoning is constrained by logic and truth. Its goal is to arrive somewhere correct, not to invent somewhere new.

Creating is fundamentally generative. It produces something that didn't exist before. And crucially, there's no single right answer waiting to be found. A blank page has infinite valid responses. Creation involves choices that can't be fully justified by logic alone. Taste, intuition and vision fill the gap where deduction runs out.

Reasoning is what Silicon Valley has been perfecting. Creating is what Hollywood has been practicing for more than a century. AI today operates almost entirely on the reasoning side of the line. It can deduce, evaluate, optimize, and pattern-match brilliantly. And while it can create, there is a real distinction to being creative. What it doesn’t yet have is those things that make us human: empathy, devotion, serendipity, the kind of creativity that comes from a person trying to say something only they could say. When the bot generates a piece of art, it is not trying to communicate anything. It is statistics, not soul; it is emulating things that have been done. By contrast, human creativity isn’t about repeating patterns of zeros and ones; it is about doing something new.

One day, AI may close this gap. Three years ago, the leaders building AI would have called what they are achieving today, improbable, if not impossible. Impossible is no longer improbable.

Today, the line between reasoning and creating is real. Even the leading technologists acknowledge we are not there yet. There is no scientific path to crossing this divide that anyone in the field can articulate today. Understanding that gap is where we will find common ground.

A Path Forward

In 2016, I closed one chapter in Hollywood with the sale of DreamWorks and opened another in Northern California, co-founding WndrCo. We’ve backed more than 50 founders building the next generation of technology and watched how breakthroughs in Silicon Valley emerge, first as experiments, then as platforms, and finally as infrastructure that reshapes entire industries. It's worth remembering that the last great revolution in animation also came from the north. Pixar was a Northern California company, forged not in the conventions of the Hollywood studio system, but in the technological breakthroughs of Silicon Valley. I've spent years on both sides of this bridge. For sure, I don’t have all the answers (take Quibi, for one!). But, from my past and present vantage points of my long career, here is what I see . . .

Brilliant people in Northern California building this technology have made something extraordinary. They have earned the right for the rest of us to be, if not believers, at least optimistic that what comes next will be remarkable. But they have not made an artist. The tools are powerful, but they are not what makes a story matter. That knowledge lives 350 miles to the south, inside people whose life's work has informed the very models you are building. The right path forward includes them by design, with credit, with consent, and with compensation. Build this with the storytellers. Not on top of them. Taste is not something that can be synthesized, it is uniquely human.

At the same time, Hollywood needs to accept that AI is not going away. The energy they are spending trying to make it disappear is energy they are not spending deciding the terms on which it will exist. And the terms are everything. The north needs something from it that they cannot build and cannot buy: creativity. The kind that takes a blank page and conjures a single right answer where there was none and has held audiences for a century. Without it, the most powerful reasoning engine ever invented will still be missing the only thing that makes a story worth telling.

The artists who learn to wield these new instruments will do things the engineers never dreamed of. They always have. Edison invented the motion picture but made terrible movies. It took Chaplin, Lloyd, Keaton and so many others to make movies emotional. Now, the canvas is about to expand yet again. We should decide now that we intend to paint on it.

There are so many valuable lessons in history. This has happened many times before, and it was never settled by the technology. It was settled by the terms. Sousa did not stop the phonograph; he helped write the law that made sure composers got paid. And two years ago, when the writers and the actors walked out, they were fighting for the very things Sousa was fighting for in 1906. Consent, compensation, the basic recognition that human creative work has a price that must be paid. The terms of that fight are still being negotiated, but the principle is older than any of us.

The tools-versus-no-tools argument is a trap. First, we must all agree that there should be terms. Then we can have the crucial debate about what fairness requires.

What I Learned From Steve Jobs

Years ago, Steve Jobs said, "It's in Apple's DNA that technology alone is not enough. It's technology married with the liberal arts, married with the humanities, that yields us the result that makes our hearts sing." He was describing a device. But he could just as easily have been describing this tale of two cities.

What I See Coming Soon

As the barriers and the costs come down, more films will get made, not fewer. Studios will get to take more risks. There will be more seats at the table, and very soon entirely new forms of storytelling. In the 1980s, animation was dismissed as a niche corner of the business. Today it is one of the most beloved and profitable forms of storytelling in the world. In live action, filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, James Cameron and Peter Jackson embraced new visual tools not as shortcuts, but as instruments, and expanded cinema in the process. Every time storytelling has met a genuine technological shift, from synchronized sound to color to computer animation, it has redefined the boundaries of the medium and grown larger in the process.

Assuredly, I don’t have all the answers, but I am confident that the creative opportunities will expand yet again. How we come through this is a choice. The north has the new tools. The south has the creative soul. The best future will draw on the best of both worlds.

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