Right now, headlines about the US and Iran are everywhere.
https://betterstocks.goatacademy.org/stocks
And if you're wondering whether you can actually make money from this conflict — the answer is yes. You can. And I'm going to tell you exactly how.
I spent years as an investment banker finding what Wall Street coldly calls "event-driven opportunities." That's their polished term for war. And during every major war—the Gulf War, the Iraq War, the Russia-Ukraine war—a 3-phase market pattern played out that dictates where institutional money typically flows next.
First, the shock — retail investors panic and sell. Then the repricing — the market calms and reassesses. Then the rotation — institutional money flows into new sectors.
The US-Iran conflict is following this same pattern right now. The shock phase is already underway. What comes next — and where the real money moves — is predictable if you know what to look for.
That's what I'm giving you here.
What Retail Investors Do vs. What Institutions Do
When conflict hits, retail investors typically do one of three things.
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They move everything to cash — thinking they're being safe while actually guaranteeing a loss to inflation.
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They freeze — staring at a red screen, paralyzed, doing nothing at all.
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Or they chase whatever just spiked — oil, defense stocks, gold — buying at exactly the wrong time because fear told them to act and they didn't have a plan.
Meanwhile, institutions — the ones managing billions — aren't doing any of this. They're repositioning based on patterns they've studied across decades of conflicts. Not emotions. Patterns.
I'm going to teach you the same thing.
The Pattern That Repeats Every Single Time
In the first 10 days of a geopolitical conflict, the S&P 500 drops 5 to 7%. After about 35 days, it's flat. Twelve months later, it's up 8 to 10% — which is roughly what the market averages in any normal year.
Real examples in history:
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During the Gulf War, the S&P returned 11.7% per year. When the war ended, it delivered 18% in the following 12 months.
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During the Iraq War in 2003, the market rose 13.6% within three months.
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During the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the S&P dropped 7% initially and then rebounded higher than pre-invasion levels within a couple of months.
War rarely destroys markets. It creates uncertainty that creates dips. And dips create opportunities.
Why Iran Matters Specifically
Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day.
Any escalation — even a perceived one — increases a supply risk that ripples through everything.
The market doesn't wait for an actual disruption. It prices in the risk of disruption. Traders assume some oil might be taken offline, which means less supply with steady demand, which means oil prices go up. And oil is an input to almost everything — transport, manufacturing, shipping, food production, fertilizers, heating, cooling.
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Higher oil means higher costs across the board.
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Higher oil prices lead to higher inflation.
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Higher inflation means the Fed might keep interest rates elevated instead of cutting them.
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Higher rates mean more expensive mortgages, car loans, and corporate borrowing.
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More expensive borrowing means lower corporate profits.
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Lower profits mean lower stock valuations.
The Three Phases of Every Conflict
Every geopolitical conflict moves money through three distinct phases. Understanding which phase you're in changes everything about what you should do.
Phase One: Shock.
This is fast, violent, and driven by emotions and algorithms. Oil spikes. The VIX — the market's fear index — surges. Risk stocks drop hard. Biotech, high-growth tech, speculative plays — they all sell off as money runs toward safety. Gold goes up. CNBC goes into 24-hour breaking news mode designed to make you as afraid as possible.
This phase lasts days, sometimes a couple of weeks. If you buy oil, gold, or defense stocks during this phase, you're almost certainly buying high. The emotional urgency to act is at its peak, which is precisely why acting here is the most expensive mistake you can make.
Phase Two: Repricing.
The panic subsides. The market starts thinking instead of feeling.
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The questions shift from "what happened?" to "what happens next?"
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Is this temporary or structural?
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Is inflation going to stay elevated?
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What will the Fed do?
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Are supply chains permanently disrupted or just temporarily stressed?
This is where institutions start repositioning. Not in the chaos of the first few days — in the clarity that follows. This is where the smart money makes its money. In the calm after the storm, not during it.
Phase Three: Rotation.
Money rotates out of the sectors that got hit and into the sectors that benefit from the new reality. Here's where it goes.
Where the Money Actually Goes
#1: Energy — but not the way you think.
The obvious play is oil, and yes, oil outperforms in the short term. Bank of America's research across 90 years of geopolitical shocks shows oil was the best performing asset, up 18% on average. You want to own the companies that benefit from higher oil prices on a sustained basis. Pipeline companies. Storage terminals. Energy infrastructure. The companies that collect a toll on oil moving through the system regardless of where the price goes next.
#2: Defense — but think structural, not headlines.
Yes, defense stocks spike immediately. Some names are up 30%+ since tensions escalated. But defense spending isn't a one-quarter event. Governments sign 10-year procurement contracts. Major contractors have backlogs measured in hundreds of billions. Look at the companies positioned for the multi-year spending cycle.
#3: Gold and silver — the longer play.
Gold spikes during phase one, but unlike oil, it tends to stay elevated. Bank of America's data shows gold continues to outperform by 19% on average six months after a shock. Because the conditions that drive gold — higher inflation, central bank money printing, institutional fear — don't disappear when the headlines calm down. If this conflict drags on and oil stays elevated, inflation stays sticky, and the Fed can't cut rates. That environment is exactly where gold thrives.
#4: Companies with pricing power.
This is the one most people miss. If inflation stays higher for longer, you want to own businesses that can pass higher costs on to their customers without losing them. Strong brands. High gross margins. Companies where customers don't have a cheaper alternative.
If you don't know which companies are high-quality, we built a tool for exactly that.
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Go to BetterStocks
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Click on "high quality" and you'll see every company that fits the criteria — so you're filtering based on the numbers that actually matter.
Which sectors gets hurt.
Utilities and real estate typically underperform during these periods. Higher rates for longer compress valuations in both sectors. If you're overweight in either, it's worth reviewing your exposure.
What You Should Actually Do
Do not panic sell. The data across decades of conflicts is overwhelming — selling during the initial shock locks in losses and guarantees you miss the recovery. Do not chase whatever just spiked. If it's already on CNBC, you're late. Do not watch war coverage.
**Keep your core portfolio intact — the high-quality companies with strong brands, high margins, and pricing power. **
Then look through your holdings and ask two questions:
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Which of these are most vulnerable to this environment?
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Where is money flowing that I don't have exposure to?
You're tilting your portfolio — a measured repositioning toward the sectors where institutional money is already moving, before the headlines catch up.
The full breakdown here:
This is your livelihood. Your retirement. The financial safety of your family.
Get your risk management right and you'll make money. It's the least exciting thing I could possibly say. But it's the truth.
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Reserve your spot here (limited to 3,000 spots).
