Domer is a former professional poker player who turned mathematics, probability, and iron discipline into $3 million on Polymarket.
He appeared on CBS's 60 Minutes with Anderson Cooper to explain exactly how he did it.
"My phone is my coffee"
When Anderson Cooper asked "Domer" what his morning routine looks like, the answer was immediate: "I look at my phone within five seconds of waking up. 'What have I missed?' My phone is my coffee. The news doesn't sleep."
Domer - who uses the handle ImJustKen on Polymarket. He has wagered more than $400 million across 10,000+ positions. In 2024 alone, he made nearly $3 million in profit. All of that is publicly verifiable on Polymarket's leaderboard.
He is also a former professional poker player. And when CBS 60 Minutes came calling in November 2025, the connection between the two worlds was the heart of the story.
Words: "I don't think of myself as a gambler. I'm taking very, very well-researched views on things. I feel it's much more akin to investing"
Rigorous blend of probability estimation, bankroll discipline, and contrarian research - is now the subject of serious study in prediction market circles.
From Poker to Polymarket: What the Public Record Shows
Domer started as a professional poker player in the "golden era" of online poker in the mid-2000s.
When the US government shut down online poker, he moved to movie box-office betting, then to political prediction markets via Intrade - until the government shut that down too. Then came Polymarket.
In his own words from an October 2024 interview with On Chain Times: "Prediction markets are basically slow-motion poker hands where you can out-research your opponents."
He joined Polymarket in early 2021 and has not looked back. He has since become the platform's top trader by both volume ($400M+) and all-time profit ~$3M.
Some of his words can completely change your vision and strategy on Polymarket:
"I think I might be losing slightly more bets than I am winning, but winning more money than I am losing. I'll let you puzzle that one out"
Why Poker and Polymarket Are the Same Game
The key insight Domer brings from poker is not a specific formula - it is a mental framework: every decision must be evaluated on its probability-weighted expected value, sized appropriately, and executed without emotional interference.
In poker, this separates professionals from amateurs. On Polymarket, it separates Domer from the crowd.
Three Formulas Behind Every Good Prediction Market Trade
These are not formulas Domer invented - they are foundational tools from probability theory and information theory, used by professional poker players, sports bettors, and quantitative traders for decades. They translate directly to prediction markets.
1. Expected Value - The Only Number That Matters
On Polymarket, a YES contract pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesn't. You pay the current market price to buy it.
Every trade reduces to one question: is your probability estimate higher than the price implies?
p = your estimated true probability of the event (your research, not the market's)
price = the current YES contract price (market's implied probability)
EV = expected profit per $1 risked. Must be > 0 to trade.
Vance trade example:
Domer's estimated probability: ~20–30% (based on naming logic + research)
Market price: $0.02 (market's implied probability: 2%)
EV = 0.25 − 0.02 = +$0.23 per dollar invested. Massive edge.
!! "Simplified: EV = p − price" is only exact when the NO payout is also $1 (which it is on Polymarket binary markets). This formula is correct for Polymarket.
2. Kelly Criterion - How Much to Bet
The Kelly Criterion (Bell Labs, 1956) calculates the mathematically optimal fraction of your bankroll to risk on a bet with a known edge.
It maximizes long-run wealth growth while avoiding ruin. Professional poker players use it (or approximations of it) for bankroll decisions.
f* = fraction of bankroll to bet (e.g., 0.25 = 25% of total capital)
b = net odds (profit per $1 risked if you win = (1−price)/price)
p = your estimated win probability | q = estimated loss probability (1−p)
*Vance trade example:
**
p = 0.25, price = 0.02 → b = (1−0.02)/0.02 = 49
f = (49 × 0.25 − 0.75) / 49 = 0.236 = 23.6% of bankroll (Full Kelly)
!! Professional bettors typically use 1/4 Kelly to 1/2 Kelly in practice. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal only when your probability estimate is perfectly accurate - which it never is.
Domer says he makes many small bets and some large ones based on conviction. He does not publicly specify his exact sizing formula.
1/2 Kelly on Vance trade: ~11.8% of bankroll. At $4,000 bet, that implies a total bankroll of ~$34K at entry.
3. Bayesian Updating - How to Think About New Information
Every skilled poker player does this instinctively: as each new card is revealed, they adjust their estimate of what the opponent holds - they don't throw out their prior read, they update it proportionally.
This is Bayesian reasoning. Domer applies this explicitly:
"Bets can be a process. They start as a gut feeling. But when you're transitioning to large bets, you need to rely on far more than your gut."
P(A) = prior: your probability estimate before new information
P(B | A) = likelihood: how probable is this new signal if A is true?
P(B) = marginal: how probable is this signal overall (baseline)?
P(A | B) = posterior: your updated probability after the new signal
Vance trade (illustrative walkthrough):
Prior P(Vance) = 0.05 (gut feeling, better than market's 0.02)
New signal: Trump publicly praises Vance at rally
P(signal | Vance wins VP) = 0.70
P(signal | Vance doesn't win VP) = 0.30 → P(signal) ≈ 0.32
Crowd vs. Math: Where the Gap Lives
The core profit opportunity on Polymarket is the gap between what the crowd prices and what the evidence supports.
Domer has identified this repeatedly - his biggest wins came from finding markets where the crowd was anchored to media narrative rather than base-rate probability.
The Two-Column Rule: Crowd vs. Evidence
Discipline: The Principles Domer Has Stated Publicly
These are not invented rules - they are principles Domer has stated directly in the CBS interview, the On Chain Times interview, and his own X posts. Each has a source.
- Bet in accordance with your edge - nothing more
The loose guide you should use to bet is that you want to bet in accordance with your edge.
If you don't find an edge, don't bet. If you find a big edge, bet a lot. A lot of people bet way too much when they don't have an edge.
- Out-research, don't out-react
Domer's biggest wins came from research done long before the event: the Vance trade was placed 5 months early.
The Pope trade required deep research into papal conclave dynamics. He described reading articles about Trump's 2016 VP process to find the Vance pattern.
- High liquidity can trap you into overbetting
High liquidity can be a bad thing if you wind up betting more than you should just because you can.
Be careful about markets being liquid enticing you to overreach. I am probably guilty of betting too much, just because of high liquidity.
- Subject-matter experts can be wrong - in a specific way
Super subject-matter experts can sometimes be very bad at predicting the thing they're an expert in. They overweight their own expertise.
He deliberately seeks markets on unfamiliar topics - because everyone starts equally ignorant and the race to figure it out is where edge lives.
- Sound out your bets with smart people
I'm smart, but not all the time, and I'm definitely not the smartest person.
So it's important to talk to smart people and get a reality check. Betting as a career is a very ronin-like existence - but you need to talk to the other ronins.
- A lost bet with a correct process is still a good bet
On the CZ prison bet, which he lost: "It was a phenomenal bet, even though it lost."
This is the poker professional's core mental model - evaluate the process, not just the outcome. One bad result doesn't invalidate sound reasoning.
- Source: Domer, On Chain Times interview, Oct 2024
There's no need to reinvent the wheel. You can simply copy what already exists.
You can copy trades made by Domer or other top traders.
To do this, select good traders (not bots that open 15 trades per second).
You need traders with good PNL and not too many predictions.
For example, 100-300 predictions per month is normal. 1000+ predictions per month is most likely a bot.
Use a high-quality copying tool. I use Predictr because it has advanced settings, high speed, and high quality.
Link: https://t.me/predictr_trade_bot?start=ref_deniskursakov
With good copy trading, you can repeat all the trades of top traders and simply make a profit.
***If you need top traders to copy, subscribe to my profile, as I often post them there. ***
Domer adress on Polymarket: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
Huhaoli - this is the address of a good not a bot-account on Polymarket: 0xf19d7d88cf362110027dcd64750fdd209a04276f
Open the app, click "Create Copy Trade" -> paste the Polymarket wallet address and set the percentage of the trader's transaction that you want to repeat.
For example: 10%. Then, if the trader bets $350, you will bet $35. Please note this and test it on a small balance.
The Domer Principle
Prediction markets are not casinos. There is no house edge. Your counterparty is other participants.
*
"If you research more carefully, estimate probabilities more accurately, and size positions more rationally - you will extract value from those who don't. Not on every bet. *But over a large sample: consistently"
